Here is a comprehensive analysis of the current situation of Bitcoin (BTC) as of mid-June 2025:
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📊 Technical indicators and prices
• The current level around $106,700, after notable volatility in the range of $104,600–$106,700.
• In the short time frames (1–4 hours), a bearish MACD signal appears, although the RSI showed oversold signals in some periods, which may indicate a technical correction or a “dead cat bounce.”
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🔍 Technical analysis
• Price structure: A descending triangle appears on the daily frame, with resistance around ~$105,500–$106,000, and initial support around $103,000. Breaking this resistance could open the door for a new bullish wave.
• Bollinger Bands and MACD: The anticipated positive crossover in MACD with the expansion of the Bollinger Band may inspire a new upward movement, according to CoinDesk analysis.
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💼 Influencing factors from the market perspective
• Institutional flows: A clear increase in institutional holdings through ETF funds; flows are in the tens of billions, with expectations for more capital to enter.
• The macro environment: A decrease in inflation in the United States and improved market sentiment, which boosts the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates, which is a positive catalyst for risky assets including Bitcoin.
• Regulatory policies: Increasing political support, especially in the United States, with trends towards creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve that enhances regulatory confidence.
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📈 Possible price scenarios
Condition. Scenario
Fundamental (70%) Price retreats towards $104,000–$103,000, before bouncing back towards $106,500–$107,000.
Bullish (30%) Breaking $106,500–$106,700 opens a path towards $110,000 first, then potentially towards $120,000–$125,000 if institutional support continues.
Bearish. A clear break below support $103,000–$101,500 opens the door for a deeper correction towards $93,000–$100,000.
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🧭 Analyst forecasts
• Cantor Fitzgerald: Another positive overall performance, with a potential correction in 2026.
• Cathie Wood (ARK): Very strong long-term vision, potentially reaching $1.5 million by 2030.
• Tom Lee (Fundstrat): Expects it to reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, and possibly $3 million in the long term.
• CoinDesk: Highlights the potential for technical expansion in movement with a bullish MACD crossover, which may lead to a phase of increased volatility followed by a decline.
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✅ Brief summary
• The current rate (~$106.7 k) reflects a transitional phase between bearish pressure and bullish successes.
• If institutional coins refrain from selling, $120 k or even $125 k is possible during June, driven by a mix of technical support, interest rate cuts, and increased institutional adoption.
• However, realistically, breaking support around $103 k–$101.5 k could lead to a deep correction towards $93 k–$100 k.
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💡 Recommendations for investors
• For intermediates: Gradual entry can be made upon a pullback towards $103 k–$104 k, using a stop loss below support levels (e.g., at $101 k).
• For speculators: Day trading or a few days, with resistances at $105.5 k–$106.5 k and a quick entry upon breakout with high liquidity.
• For long-term holders: Focus on fundamental indicators (ETF, regulatory policies, inflation, ...), as these factors support significant highs in the coming years.
