Advisor discusses hot topics:
First, let’s talk about the question that many friends ask the most: How do we view the current market? In one sentence: It seems to be a choppy upward movement, but in reality, it’s playing dead and crawling. Bitcoin is indeed slowly inching up, but short-term bulls and bears are still alternating back and forth.
You might think this market is being supported by institutions, but in fact, they are trying to keep you from making reckless moves. Additionally, some people say Bitcoin has entered an eternal bull market; if you believe that, you deserve to be harvested.
That wave of crazy bull market before December 18 last year is still fresh in memory; can this little rebound in altcoins be called a bull? At most, it's a weekly twitch, and it hasn't even escaped the stage of catching its breath after a fall.
Looking back after early April, more people started calling for a bull market, citing that more and more institutions are present. They want to protect their positions and won't let it drop too much. It sounds reasonable, but the problem is these institutions are protecting their own positions, not your trapped orders.
Don’t be fooled by the three months of fake actions by the Federal Reserve this year, trying to deceive the market into thinking that rate cuts are far away. Negative news keeps coming one after another, which is essentially just clearing out the shorts and then the longs.
Additionally, Bitcoin has never taken off immediately after a halving. Looking back at historical data, which round of bull markets didn’t explode after a halving? Then comes a geopolitical crisis or an economic black swan to burst the bubble, followed by a quiet bear market.
Now Bitcoin stands above 100K; many who jumped from 17K have already cashed out. The remaining people still hope for a sky-high rally in spot prices; it's time to wake up. Moving from 10K to 90K is a pleasure, but who wants to take the last leg?
Back to the market, that drop in the early morning directly destroyed the small-scale bullish structure. Although technically it's a long wick, structurally it means the small trend couldn't withstand the hit. Now it has changed from a small bullish trend to a choppy structure, and trend trading must pause at this time.
Currently, there is a heap of bullish liquidity stacked between 103K and 102K, and the shorts just got swept out. Now the main force is sharpening their knives, preparing for the next game.
As for the current structure of Bitcoin, it's a chaotic zone that even dogs would avoid, with weak funding sentiment. There are still a bunch of issues outside, and the American data is as good as saying nothing, while geopolitical politics just keeps coming in waves. There is no coherent narrative, the market lacks sentiment, and funding has no patience.
Currently, I personally believe that in the larger timeframe, this area is likely to form a triangle convergence. The pile of bullish liquidity below is probably a false breakdown. The liquidity around 110K is the gold mine that the main force wants to dig into, but don't forget that it might turn into a false breakout after clearing out.
Advisor views the trend:
Reference for resistance levels:
Second resistance level: 110200
First resistance level: 108600
Reference for support levels:
Second support level: 106500
First support level: 105000
Bitcoin failed to break through 109K and instead retreated, but the current downward trend has eased and started to rebound, indicating that important support and the trend have not been destroyed. Maintain a rebound outlook, but be cautious of risks in the 109K–110K range.
The short-term rising trend line is currently supported; pay attention to the movements of the 120-day and 200-day moving averages during the day. Take partial profits in the resistance zone of 109K–110K to lock in short-term gains.
The first resistance level at 108.6K was also yesterday's closing high, indicating short-term pressure. If the price rebounds to this range, consider taking partial profits. The second resistance at 110.2K is a larger resistance zone; if it approaches this range, pay attention to trading volume to decide whether to take profits.
The first support at 106.5K is a short-term support level. If you want to aggressively go long, you can buy on dips in this range, while also paying attention to whether the 120-day and 200-day moving averages can provide short-term support. If the price continues to break below the 120MA and drops to the second support at 105K, the short-term bullish outlook will be broken, opening up a downward channel.
6.17 Advisor's wave plan:
Reference for long entry: Gradually buy in the range of 106000-106500; target: 108000-108600
Reference for short entry: Not currently referenced
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just make rash conclusions after watching a few market movements. This market is full of performers; today they take screenshots of long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they 'catch every top and bottom', but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have consistent and self-consistent trading logic that can withstand scrutiny, rather than jumping in to show off once the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and disjointed screenshots; only through long-term observation and deep understanding can you discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
