Current Trend Analysis

Daily Structure: BTC is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with strong resistance near the previous high of 111980. The daily chart shows a rebound for two consecutive days but failed to effectively break through the previous high. Although MACD is in the golden cross zone, the momentum bars are relatively weak, indicating that the bullish momentum has not yet increased significantly.

Hourly Structure: After a short-term rebound above 107800, there was a quick pullback, currently retesting the EMA60 support around 106000-106200; MACD shows signs of a top divergence, indicating a need for short-term adjustments.

Key Moving Averages: EMA60 and EMA144 are entangled near 106510 and 106364, forming the current trend inflection point.

Volume Performance: Increased volume on the rebound + decreased volume on the pullback, which is a healthy washout structure, but the trapped positions above are still heavy.

Trading Strategy

Bullish Strategy

Entry Point: After consolidating in the 105800-106200 range, stabilize above EMA60/EMA144 to attempt a light position entry.

Stop Loss: Below 104800 (breaking the structure confirms a weak turn to bearish)

Take Profit: 107800 / 109500 / Previous High 111980 (take profit in batches)

Bearish Strategy

Entry Point: When rebounding near 107800 without breaking, and forming an upper shadow to suppress, attempt a short position.

Stop Loss: Above 108400

Take Profit: 106200 / 105000 / Extreme Support 104000

Operational Suggestions

Signal Confirmation: Bulls may wait for stabilization with decreased volume around 106000 or a breakout with increased volume before re-entering, while bears should primarily focus on shorting when the rebound does not break the previous high.

Position Control: The overall market is still leaning towards strong consolidation; light positions for probing are advisable, and it is important to avoid chasing prices and excessive heavy positions.

Emotional Management: The market has been volatile for several days; do not blindly operate emotionally due to short-term fluctuations. Strictly execute the entry and exit point settings and respect stop losses.

(This does not constitute investment advice)