Let’s start with the basics: interest rates.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has been holding rates at restrictively high levels since 2022. For years, the cost of borrowing was near zero.
Now? Over 5%. And despite hopes that the Fed would slash rates aggressively in 2025, they’ve just made it clear: only 3 cuts are coming this year — 0.25% each. That’s just 0.75% total.
A slow drip, not the flood the markets wanted.
At the same time, the Fed isn’t just keeping money expensive — it’s pulling money out of the system.
We’re in a phase called Quantitative Tightening (QT).
What is QT and Why Crypto Usually Suffers?
QT means the Fed is reducing its balance sheet. Instead of buying bonds like they did during COVID (that’s QE — more on that later), they’re letting them expire without replacement.
In other words: money is being drained from the system.
Less liquidity = harder environment for risk-on assets like stocks and crypto.
In theory, this is when #BTC should struggle.
And in many ways, it has — we’ve seen volatility, weakness in alts, and slow ETF flows in recent weeks.
But here’s the twist...
Despite QT, Crypto Still Grows
Bitcoin has shown resilience. Why?
Because the market isn’t trading on where we are now. It’s trading on where we’re going.
Institutions are positioning early. Retail is slowly coming back.
ETFs have already opened the door, and geopolitical instability is pushing more people to look for hard assets — and yes, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as one.
But the biggest reason? Everyone knows QE is coming.
What is QE and Why It Changes Everything
QE — Quantitative Easing — is the opposite of QT.
It’s when the Fed starts buying assets again, pumping money into the system. Liquidity floods back. Rates go down. Risk assets surge.
Crypto thrives in QE. It’s rocket fuel.
And here’s the thing: QE isn’t just some distant dream. With Trump’s economic plans, rising deficits, and growing geopolitical tension (like Israel–Iran heating up), QE is becoming inevitable.
The U.S. can't afford tight policy forever — not with global conflicts brewing and debt spiraling.
So Why Do People Expect the Bull Run Peak in Q3 2025?
It’s a bit of a paradox.
Everyone expects Q3 2025 to be the peak of the crypto bull run — fueled by rate cuts, inflows, and sentiment.
But the Fed hasn’t started QE yet. In fact, we’re still tightening.
So what gives?
Markets are front-running the inevitable.
They’re betting that something will break — whether it’s the economy under Trump’s next term, or global peace under fire.
And when it does, the Fed will have no choice but to start easing.
That’s when liquidity pours in, and crypto enters its final, euphoric phase.
Final Thought
We’re still in QT. Rates are high. Liquidity is tight.
And yet, Bitcoin is near all-time highs.
Why? Because everyone sees what’s coming.
Trump’s fiscal chaos, emerging wars, inflation battles — they all point to QE as a matter of “when,” not “if.”
And when QE returns, the real bull run begins.
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