June 16 - June 20 Weekly Macro Events Summary:

🟢【Tuesday, June 17】

01:00: U.S. 20-Year Treasury Bond Auction

20:30: U.S. May Retail MoM Release

Assessment: The unexpectedly weak 20-year Treasury bond auction in May raised short-term concerns at the time. This auction will be closely watched to see how it performs and whether it will further deepen market concerns about the bond market.

The U.S. May retail MoM is a key economic indicator. Retail MoM represents data on market demand. In the current economic situation, inflation remains stable but stubborn, and the decrease in inflation is mainly due to falling energy prices. However, recent geopolitical issues in the Middle East have caused energy prices to rise, which could likely lead to a rebound in inflation in June and July.

Employment data remains stable, but non-farm employment continues to cool. Although the unemployment rate is stable, it is precarious. If market demand weakens at this time, with the current May retail data being negative, and if the data meets expectations, it would indicate weakened demand, coupled with high inflation and declining employment, which could trigger stagflation risks. Therefore, this retail MoM release needs to be closely monitored.

🟢【Thursday, June 19 (U.S. data for Wednesday, June 18)】

02:00: The Federal Reserve announces the June monetary policy rate decision and economic outlook summary

02:30: Powell Speaks

Assessment: Currently, the probability of not cutting interest rates in June is 96.9% according to CME, which is basically a done deal. The focus will be on the dot plot release and the stance of FOMC members regarding the interest rate cut path for 2025, specifically whether they will lock in two rate cuts in 2025, which is currently a contentious point.

Additionally, Powell's speech will be important, as it will address the content of the dot plot and provide appropriate expectations for the next steps in Federal Reserve policy.

It is important to note: The current market speculation centers on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice or just once in 2025. If it is two cuts, this aligns with previous market expectations and is unlikely to bring much boost to market sentiment. Conversely, if there is only one cut, it may actually lower market optimism.

On the other hand, attention can be paid to whether Powell will mention any changes to QT (Quantitative Tightening). Currently, QT has been reduced to a low level, so whether to consider pausing QT is significant. If interest rate adjustments are unfavorable to market sentiment, pausing QT would at least have a positive effect on market liquidity.