June 16 ETH Market Analysis
Currently a standoff between bulls and bears, the 4-hour chart reveals a key resistance at 1.06% for a short-term rebound. The EMA30 moving average at 2578.19 and the upper Bollinger band at 2599.04 form a bear defense line, while the middle Bollinger band at 2541.03 and the EMA7 at 2545.05 constitute a bull lifeline with five key signals.
Although the price is above EMA7 at 2545, it faces precise resistance from EMA30 at 2578. A rebound is precarious, and bulls need to break through 2580 to open up space; otherwise, a re-test of 2540 will assess the strength of support.
The Bollinger channel has sharply narrowed from 2599 to 2483, only a $116 space, and volatility has compressed to a critical point. A one-sided market must occur within the next 8 candlesticks or 32 hours. The MACD is sending conflicting signals; green bars appear on the MACD, indicating bearish exhaustion at 11.00, but the DIF at -25.82 and DEA at -31.32 remain deeply submerged, casting doubt on the strength of the rebound and cautioning against a false golden cross.
RSI is approaching the overbought zone, with retail investors chasing prices while institutions remain cautious. If RSI breaks 70 and RSI3 does not keep up, a top divergence will form.
Current volume is 827,000 coins > 5-day average volume, but < estimated volume showing stagnation: the price increased by 1% but failed to break key resistance, indicating accumulated selling pressure.
Conservatives: Maintain an empty position and observe; follow on the right side after breaking 2580 or falling below 2540 to avoid volatility.
Aggressives: Short a small position at the current price of 2573, stop loss at 2585, target 2545, risk-reward ratio 1:3.
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