Hey crypto fam,
A topic has started heating up again — and this time, it’s not just FUD or sci-fi imagination.
Quantum computers — once thought of as far-future tech — are now closer than ever, and many experts are starting to ask:
👉 What happens to Bitcoin when quantum tech is ready to break cryptographic security?
Let’s break it down. 👇
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🔬 IBM Aims for 2029: Quantum Starling Incoming
IBM is building what could be a fault-tolerant quantum machine — something stable and scalable. Their new model, Quantum Starling, is planned to roll out by 2029.
If it works as intended, this kind of system might crack today’s cryptography — and that includes blockchain security protocols.
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⚠️ Google Says It’s Closer Than We Thought
In May 2025, Google’s Craig Gidney revealed a bombshell:
They found a way to reduce the resources needed to break RSA encryption by 20x.
While Bitcoin uses ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography), not RSA — both can be vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm.
And with less than 1 million qubits, Gidney says modern encryption could fall in just a week. That's scary-fast.
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👨💻 Some Say “It’s Still Far Away”
Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a Bitcoin OG, isn’t sounding the alarm just yet.
He thinks we’re still 15–20 years away from truly dangerous quantum attacks — but suggests moving old BTC to quantum-resistant wallets, just in case.
Especially those early “Satoshi era” coins? Vulnerable.
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🔥 The Real Red Flag?
David Carvalho from Naoris Protocol believes the timeline could be as short as 5 years.
Even BlackRock reportedly includes the quantum threat in its ETF risk analysis.
He claims:
⚠️ 30% of Bitcoin is still on old, vulnerable addresses
🧨 One major breach could shatter global trust in BTC
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🧩 Chamat’s Warning: 2–5 Years?
Investor Chamath Palihapitiya predicted in late 2024 that SHA-256 (Bitcoin’s hashing algorithm) could be broken in 2–5 years — with the help of around 8,000 quantum chips like the ones Google has already prototyped.
Scaling them remains a challenge, but the clock is ticking.
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⏳ So What Now?
Quantum tech may still be a work-in-progress… but progress is happening much faster than anyone expected.
📌 Should Bitcoin developers shift now to quantum-proof cryptography?
📌 Or is this still just a “someday” problem?
Let’s talk. The future of decentralized money might depend on it.
👇 Drop your thoughts below.
