The cryptocurrency market continues its recent upward trend, mainly driven by macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and technical factors. Bitcoin (BTC) prices fluctuate around $100,000, failing to break the previous high of $106,000, indicating some resistance at high levels. The altcoin market shows a mixed performance, with some projects getting funding attention due to airdrop expectations and technical progress, but overall retail participation remains low, with the upward trend mainly driven by institutions and large holders.
II. Core Observations
1. Macroeconomic and Policy Impacts
US Economic Data: Recent US inflation data has remained low, leading to increased market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has weakened, benefiting risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Gold prices have broken through $3,350 per ounce, indicating a coexistence of risk aversion and risk appetite in the crypto market.
Regulatory Dynamics: The Ministry of Commerce stated that it treats all business entities that meet policies equally, suggesting that the regulatory environment may stabilize, but global regulation of cryptocurrencies still requires close attention.
Market Sentiment: Retail participation is low, and market momentum mainly comes from institutional funds and the pursuit of airdrop projects. Token issuance expectations from platforms like pump.fun continue to attract community attention.
2. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): BTC has formed short-term support near the $100,000 mark but has repeatedly failed to break through $106,000. The technical indicators show characteristics of high-level volatility. The RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone, and there may be short-term retracement pressure.
Ethereum (ETH) and Other Altcoins: Ethereum is performing relatively steadily, with sustained interest in Layer 2 solutions and DeFi projects. Some emerging projects (such as Hyperliquid, Magic Eden, etc.) have seen increased trading volume driven by airdrop expectations.
Key Resistance and Support: BTC's key resistance level is between $106,000 and $110,000, with support at $95,000 to $100,000. The altcoin market needs to focus on the fundamentals of specific projects to avoid blindly chasing highs.
3. Hot Projects and Airdrop Opportunities
pump.fun: As an important platform in the Solana ecosystem, the cumulative revenue has reached 1,595,278 SOL, and its token issuance and airdrop plans have sparked market discussions. Investors can pay attention to its community dynamics and participation methods.
Other Potential Projects: Among the 30 airdrop projects summarized by BlockBeats, Pudgy Penguins, Fuel, and others have high potential, and it is recommended to pay attention to their on-chain activities and airdrop rules.
Technology-driven Projects: Projects combining artificial intelligence and blockchain (as mentioned in the a16z report) continue to receive attention, and investors can focus on the relevant ecological progress. (Brothers, remember to like and follow, thank you for your support!)
