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Monday Morning Thoughts and Strategies

From the analysis of the four-hour candlestick chart, although the price rebounded slightly after breaking through the middle track support, the rebound strength was weak and failed to regain the middle track, indicating heavy selling pressure above. The Bollinger Bands are gradually widening, which means that market volatility is increasing, and the trend is likely to continue its downward trajectory. Currently, the candlesticks are continuously closing in the red, and the bearish arrangement trend is evident. The overall market structure has shown top characteristics, and the subsequent downward risk is intensifying. Observing the hourly level line, the price has repeatedly been blocked at the middle track during the rebound, and the moving average system has formed a bearish arrangement. Short-term bearish momentum continues to strengthen, with rebound peaks consistently moving lower, and the short-term moving average system starting to diverge downward, forming a suppression situation. The 105500 - 105800 range is not only a densely traded area during the previous rebound but also coincides with the resistance level of the middle track on the hourly chart, forming a strong resistance zone. Once the price is under pressure in this range, there is a high probability that around 104200 will become the bearish target.

Trading Recommendation

Short the Bitcoin in the 105800-106500 area on rallies, with a target of 104000.