Based on current market analysis and information available until June 15, 2025, here are Bitcoin (BTC) trading recommendations against the US Dollar (BTC/USD) for this week on the Binance platform, focusing on technical and fundamental analysis. Please note that trading cryptocurrencies involves high risk, and these recommendations are not financial advice but rather general analysis based on available data.
Market overview
• Current price: Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,500 - $104,500, with slight fluctuations after failing to break strong resistance at $111,947 recently, leading to a slight correction.
• Market sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index indicates a 'Greed' area (score 61-74), reflecting cautious optimism among investors, with potential volatility due to upcoming macroeconomic events.
• Time frame: Analysis focuses on the daily (1D) and four-hour (4H) time frames to determine entry and exit points.
Technical analysis
1 Support and resistance levels:
◦ Support:
▪ $102,400 - $102,800 (price equilibrium zone, FVG).
▪ $100,600 - $102,000 (50-61% Fibonacci of the last upward wave).
▪ $95,000 (major structural support).
◦ Resistance:
▪ $104,300 (liquidity zone, Equal Highs).
▪ $108,260 (major resistance, supported by high trading volumes).
▪ $111,947 (most recent high).
2 Technical indicators:
◦ RSI (Relative Strength Index): Trading around 60-65 on the daily chart, indicating positive momentum but nearing the overbought zone (70). If it exceeds 70, a short-term correction may occur.
◦ MACD: A slight positive crossover is observed, supporting upward momentum, but recent slowdown requires close monitoring for trend confirmation.
◦ Bollinger Bands: The price is approaching the upper limit of the Bollinger channel on the daily chart, enhancing caution regarding potential overbought conditions.
3 Price patterns:
◦ A 'Parabolic Curve' pattern is forming on the weekly chart, with consecutive support bases (Base 1 to Base 4), reinforcing the likelihood of a continued upward trend in the long term.
◦ On the daily chart, there are signs of momentum slowdown after failing to break through $111,947, with a potential short-term corrective pattern forming (descending triangle or horizontal fluctuation).
Fundamental analysis
• Economic events:
◦ Expected US inflation data (CPI) on Wednesday may affect the market. Predictions indicate a decrease in inflation to 2.1-2.3%, which could support high-risk assets like Bitcoin if results are positive.
◦ Federal Reserve statements on interest rates may pressure the market if they remain hawkish.
• Market sentiment: Cautious optimism supported by institutional flows and increasing interest in cryptocurrency investment funds (ETFs), such as Solana and XRP, which may enhance confidence in Bitcoin as a leading asset.
• News: Institutional adoption of Bitcoin (like Paris Saint-Germain) boosts long-term confidence, but does not prevent short-term volatility.
Trading recommendations for this week
1 Bullish scenario (buy):
◦ Entry point: At $102,400 - $102,800 if the price shows a strong rebound with confirmation from RSI (below 60) and a positive MACD crossover.
◦ Target:
▪ First target: $104,300 (partial profit taking).
▪ Second target: $108,260 (major resistance).
◦ Stop loss: At $100,000 to reduce risk.
◦ Leverage: Avoid high leverage (preferably 1:1 or 2:1) due to high volatility.
2 Bearish scenario (sell):
◦ Entry point: If the price breaks support at $103,073 with bearish confirmation from MACD (negative crossover) or RSI (below 50).
◦ Target:
▪ First target: $96,000.
▪ Second target: $92,000 (monitoring $95,000 as strong support).
◦ Stop loss: At $105,500 to avoid a bullish trap.
◦ Leverage: Trading without leverage or using very low leverage is preferred.
3 Neutral strategy (volatility):
◦ Monitor fluctuations between $102,400 and $104,300, buying at support and selling at resistance.
◦ Use Limit Orders to optimize entry and exit points.
◦ Monitor trading volume: High volumes at $104,300 may indicate a bullish breakout, while low volumes may reinforce a downward correction.
Risk management tips
• Portfolio diversification: Do not allocate more than 5-10% of capital to Bitcoin trading due to high volatility.
• Stop loss: Always use stop-loss orders to avoid significant losses.
• Follow the news: Watch for inflation data (CPI) on Wednesday and any statements from the Federal Reserve, as they may impact prices.
• Analysis tools: Use platforms like Binance and TradingView to monitor technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands) and daily market updates.
Weekly forecast
• Most likely scenario: Fluctuation within the range of $102,400 - $104,300 with a chance to test resistance at $108,260 if economic news supports upward momentum.
• Alternative scenario: Downward correction to $96,000 - $95,000 if the price fails to maintain support at $103,073.
• Influencing factors: Inflation data, Federal statements, and trading volumes will be critical this week.
Final notes
• Based on your previous interest in cryptocurrencies like XRP and Optimism, it is recommended to follow regulatory developments (such as the SEC case with XRP) and institutional flows, as they may affect overall market sentiment.
• Check prices directly on Binance or CoinMarketCap for real-time data, as prices change rapidly.
• If you are a beginner, try a demo account on Binance to test strategies without risk.
Risk warning: Trading cryptocurrencies involves high risk, and you may lose your entire capital. Conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor if necessary.
If you need deeper analysis or illustrative graphs, let me know and I will assist you!
