What will happen to Bitcoin in light of the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel?
Analysts are airing their expectations about the potential impact that the increase in tension between Israel and Iran would have on Bitcoin.
The escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran has once again highlighted the influence of global geopolitics on Bitcoin. Various analysts have shared their opinions on what could await the digital currency and its ecosystem in the context of the current tension.
In market terms, last Thursday, June 12, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell nearly 4%, dropping from USD 108,500 to USD 103,500 following the massive airstrike launched by Israel against Iran. This triggered a series of retaliations between both nations that continue to be reported in media around the world.
The drop of BTC below USD 106,000 could return it to a consolidation phase, with support at USD 100,000. John Glover, CIO of Ledn, sees rather an entry into a corrective phase that could bring BTC close to USD 88,000.
On the optimistic side, several analysts expect a swift recovery of the bullish trend, especially based on historical precedents. Anthony Pompliano, an investor and enthusiastic Bitcoin entrepreneur, explained that BTC's immediate reaction to this escalation was similar to what it experienced in October 2024, when the price dropped by 3% after Iran launched hundreds of missiles at Israel. However, within 48 hours, BTC's performance exceeded that of gold and oil, assets recognized as safe havens. This precedent opens the possibility of history repeating itself.
André Dragosch, Head of Research for Europe at Bitwise, published a study showing that Bitcoin tends to react with drops in response to geopolitical conflicts. However, over a period of 50 days, its price recovers and even surpasses the level it was at before the escalation.
For his part, Adam Back, cypherpunk and CEO of Blockstream, posted on his account on X an image comparing the performance of BTC, gold, and the S&P 500 between 10 and 60 days after global impact events, such as escalations of military conflicts. Bitcoin delivered the best results in most cases.
