The implied volatility IV of Bitcoin has fallen to near historical lows close to September 2023, which means:
- Short-term price stability: With lower implied volatility, Bitcoin prices may remain relatively stable in the short term, fluctuating within a certain price range without significant upswings or downswings.
- Potential breakout after accumulation: Historically, Bitcoin often experiences significant price breakouts after periods of low volatility. Although the current implied volatility is low, it may simply be the market building energy for the next major fluctuation. Once significant positive or negative factors emerge, prices may experience explosive increases or decreases.
What needs to be done now is to guard against black swan events; if no black swan occurs or the market withstands the negative factors, then the entire cryptocurrency market could see a huge surge. Specifically, refer to the collective surge in the cryptocurrency market after September 2023, including altcoins.
Therefore, caution + patience