When Donald Trump stood on the stage for his last debate in 2020, the word 'crypto' was hardly ever mentioned. However, now, with the possibility of the former president's return to the White House, the crypto community suddenly holds onto hope. What will happen if Trump leads the United States with a pro-crypto agenda? The answer could be as extreme as the fluctuations in Dogecoin's price: full of potential, but also full of surprises.

Opportunities: Deregulation and a Surge of Innovation

Trump has long been known as an anti-strict regulation figure, especially for the technology industry. If he returns, the US could become a paradise for blockchain startups and crypto companies. Imagine: easier licensing for crypto exchanges, reduced crypto taxes, or even the elimination of strict SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) regulations that have long been seen as stifling innovation.

This is not just a dream. Some of Trump's supporters, like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, have proposed pro-crypto policies, including the 'Florida Blockchain Innovation Act', which provides tax incentives for blockchain companies. If similar ideas are implemented nationally, the US could rival countries like El Salvador or Portugal, which have already opened their doors wide to crypto.

Moreover, Trump may leverage crypto as a political weapon. With the crypto community growing larger and younger, pro-crypto policies could attract a new voter base. In fact, Trump himself has launched NFTs and accepted donations in the form of crypto for his campaign—a sign that he is beginning to understand the symbolic potential of this technology.

Risks: Regulatory Uncertainty and Potential Market Fragmentation

However, Trump's pro-crypto policies are also fraught with risks. Deregulation could mean minimal protection for retail investors. Without strict oversight, the crypto market could be filled with 'shitcoin' projects that only seek quick money, like the cases of FTX or Terra/LUNA. This could undermine public trust in crypto as a whole.

Additionally, Trump may use crypto as a political rhetorical tool, rather than a technological solution. For example, he might claim crypto as the 'enemy of the dollar' to attack his political opponents' economic policies, regardless of long-term consequences. His often flip-flopping stance—like when he once called Bitcoin a 'threat' in 2019—also makes investors uneasy.

Even more dangerously, Trump could trigger regulatory wars between states. If the US becomes very pro-crypto, other countries might react with protectionist policies, triggering fragmentation of the global market. This would complicate the adoption of blockchain technology that is supposed to be transnational.

The Remaining Question: Is This Really Progressive?

Ironically, even though Trump claims to be pro-innovation, his policies may actually hinder the broader development of crypto technology. A lack of regulation could limit collaboration between crypto and traditional financial institutions, such as banks or digital asset companies that need legal clarity.

So, what about environmental issues? Trump is known to be skeptical of climate change. If he ignores the energy impact of Bitcoin mining, this could provoke criticism from environmental groups and slow down crypto adoption in the ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) sector.

Amidst all this, the question remains: Will Trump's pro-crypto policies really benefit the market, or just serve as a rhetorical tool to garner votes? The answer may become clear after 2024. But one thing is certain: the crypto market is ready to shake—whether due to a DOGE surge or a controversial tweet about 'fake crypto'.

Brace for volatility wilder than the 2021 bull run. Because in the Trump era, crypto is not just about technology, but also about showbiz.

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