📈 Short-term Performance and Landscape
• Bitcoin is steadily recovering after the early-year decline, rising above $105,000 – driven by institutional demand amidst a wave of situational optimism.
• The price index versus the 50-day moving average has reached its peak, but the fading difference indicates a potential correction of up to 10% may occur soon.
• The support range sits between $105,000–108,000, with resistance increasing near $111,000 (the previous peak recorded in May).
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🏦 Institutional Factors
• Institutions like MicroStrategy and Trump Media continue to bolster their Bitcoin holdings, threatening to become part of the operational “Bitcoin treasury”.
• ETFs like iShares and Fidelity have attracted and changed the investment landscape, with projected inflows exceeding $55 billion in 2025, enhancing the legitimacy of the asset.
🌍 Major Analysts and Medium to Long-term Insights
• Bitfinex forecasts suggest a potential reach of $120,000–125,000 by June, supported by the likelihood of U.S. interest rate cuts and liquidity expansion.
• More optimistic forecasts: from $150,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2025, according to Tom Lee and Standard Chartered.
• Market models indicate an expected range from $80,000 to $150,000+ during 2025, focusing on technical and operational factors.
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⚖️ Technical and Fundamental Analysis
• Bitcoin is in a “final pullback” phase within a tight range between $103,800 – $105,800, with long-term investors dominating without heavy selling.
• The current trend is viewed as a “peaceful rally” – lower levels are supported by buyers again during any dips.
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🌀 Risks and Challenges
• Volatility: Despite optimism, fluctuations may lead to sharp corrections, especially if interest rate cuts are delayed or unexpected economic news emerges.
• Geopolitical Factors: Rising international tensions (such as conflicts in the Middle East) may create flows to or from digital assets.
• Regulatory Pressures: Despite the current U.S. government's leniency, new legislation or SEC interventions may reshape the regulatory environment.
✅ Summary
The market is witnessing a recovery phase supported by institutional demand and ETF technology, with clear technical support at current levels. However, a slight dip from the moving average and geopolitical and regulatory economic threats call for caution. The short-term outlook expects surges to levels between $110,000–115,000, while the medium to long-term pushes toward $120,000–250,000, depending on preferred scenarios.
