The Altcoin Season Index dropped to 26, reflecting Bitcoin Dominance but also opening the possibility of a reversal for altcoins in the future.
A sustainable upward trend towards a $270 billion market cap is a key factor to confirm the breakout structure of altseason.
The overall cryptocurrency market has recorded a slight recovery, however, altcoins — rather than Bitcoin (BTC) — are the main driving force leading the upward trend. This raises concerns among many investors about the possibility of a sell-off. However, on-chain data shows a completely different development.
Stable exchange inflows: A calm signal amid volatility
Although price volatility has increased, the number of altcoin transactions on exchanges remains low.
On major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, OKX, and Bybit, the altcoin inflows have only fluctuated around 30K transactions, much lower than the peak of over 100K recorded during major corrections in March and December 2024.
This is clearly different from previous periods, when altcoin volumes were heavily sold off before each major correction.
This stable inflow trend reflects a change in investor trading behavior, possibly shifting to decentralized exchanges (DEX) or converting altcoins to USDC and USDT.
Source: Julio Moreno/X
Absolute silence: Is it really 'too quiet'?
However, relying solely on data from centralized exchanges (CEX) could make the view of the overall market activity less comprehensive.
The 'quiet' inflow reflects that holders are not in a hurry to sell off. This is a sign that panic selling sentiment has been limited and could be a longer-term buying motive for altcoins.
Under the influence of geopolitical instability, the Fear and Greed Index reached 52, reflecting that market sentiment has returned to a neutral state after a series of cryptocurrencies plummeted.
This implies that fears have eased, and the market is in a self-'cleaning' phase after the recent sell-off and liquidation.
Source: CoinMarketCap
This neutral level does not reflect overly optimistic sentiment or extreme fear, but rather a market that is hesitant and cautious. The recent volatility events along with large-scale liquidations have helped the market reset its initial state.
Can the Altcoin Season Index reverse?
Analysis of the Altcoin Season Index shows that this index has dropped to 26 after briefly reaching 30 recently.
This confirms that Bitcoin is controlling market volatility. However, altcoins do not completely lose their opportunities — some signs of recovery are still appearing locally.
If this index exceeds 50, it will be a signal confirming a strong bullish momentum for altcoins. At this time, the advantage still belongs to Bitcoin, but the market situation can shift quickly.
Source: CoinMarketCap
2025: Repeating the 2021 model?
Comparing the altcoin season of 2021 and 2025 based on analysis shows that both periods share the commonality of experiencing a 'double fakeout' just below the 1-month MA line, followed by an impressive recovery.
In 2021, this structure triggered an altcoin rally that lasted for several months.
In 2025, the market experienced two breaches of the $180 billion mark, with quick pullbacks and recoveries afterward. A growth structure has emerged, but the outcome will depend on subsequent developments.
Source: Merlijn The Trader/X
However, the volume factor and macro momentum have yet to explode in 2025. If the total altcoin market cap can accumulate steadily towards the $270 billion range, the chances of a breakout will become clearer.
Conversely, if altcoin prices cannot maintain above the MA line, the likelihood of rejection increases significantly. Overall, the technical configuration is in place, but the market needs real momentum and capital flow from practical application projects to establish a breakout.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/altcoin-season-index-giam-bitcoin-ngung-tre/
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