Market Macro Expectations———

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is about 16-17%

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is between 58-80%

August is a window period for interest rate discussions

Personally, I think all of this is not important; the real drama starts after the rate cut takes effect for a while.

If there is indeed a rate cut in September, then the real drama that Monkey King has been talking about will only happen at the end of the year, in November and December.

If we start rising now, then it would need to continue rising for several months; I think that’s unlikely.

So, I also don’t understand the logic of those who expect continuous growth after June.

The chart below will continue to be updated! Those robots saying it will drop to 69,000 should open their eyes and take a look.

The super extreme position is just 78,000; aren’t those looking at 69,000 a bit foolish?

Right now, the main players on Wall Street are queuing up to enter the market, waiting for the black swan; there’s too much money to remember that Bitcoin is a scarce resource.

Bitcoin will not experience the kind of 50% correction seen in the bull markets of 2017 and 2021.

For those starting with 5 and 6, don’t expect to wait for it in these two years.