Is the short-term rebound of $BTC a trap for more buyers or a real reversal?

Recently, the market has been a typical case of 'breathing after a drop'; although there are signs of a short-term rebound, don't rush to call it a reversal. In the short term, the 15-minute and 30-minute moving averages still indicate a 'rise' with a red three soldiers pattern, but the longer-term moving averages are still pressing down. If we can't get past the 105625 threshold, the rebound is just a trick.

Don't be too optimistic in the mid-term either; the MACD is lying flat below the zero axis, the 90-day moving average is sliding down, and the crocodile indicator has all three lines pointing down, clearly benefiting the bears. If this rebound doesn't have trading volume to support it, it won't even change the mid-term weakness.

From a technical perspective, the wave of red three soldiers and bottom formation on the night of the 13th was indeed exciting, but on the 14th, it was doused with cold water, with a top formation and a doji, changing faster than flipping a book. The EMA144 and EMA169 are about to stick together, and the market is still lost. The MACD's red bars have turned into green bars, and the DIF and DEA are muddling around below the zero axis, like guessing with rock-paper-scissors. Although the short-term moving averages are bouncing a bit, the 90-day moving average is still racing downhill; this rebound is like floating duckweed without roots. The Bollinger Bands are swaying close to the lower band, with volatility as high as a roller coaster; the support level at 103000 is now crucial, and if it can't be held, we'll have to slide down.

Now the 4-hour chart looks like it's about to hit bottom, but don't rush to go all in! The upper range of 105500-106500 is pressing down hard.

Personal opinion: Don't be blinded by the short-term rebound; the overall trend is still determined by the bears. At this stage, it's like a whack-a-mole game—pick up some at the support level and run away when you hit the resistance. Never go against the trend!

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