The current and immediate impact we have seen is a sharp decline resulting from fear and uncertainty. Financial markets do not like surprises and hate "uncertainty" more than anything else. Sometimes, even confirmed bad news is better than not knowing what will happen.

The market is no longer asking "Is Bitcoin good or not?" Instead, it is asking:

* Is this military response the end of escalation?

* Or is it the beginning of a series of retaliatory attacks?

* Will other global powers intervene?

The answers to these questions will determine the market's direction in the coming days and weeks. Based on that, we have three main scenarios:

Potential scenarios for the short to medium term

1. The scenario of decline again (the negative scenario)

* Catalyst: Any news of further escalation. Hostile statements from either side, or news of new attacks, or direct intervention from other countries.

* Its effect on the market: A new wave of selling driven by fear (Risk-Off). Investors will once again turn to safe havens. In this case, it is very likely that the market will break the lows recorded yesterday (such as 102,664$ for Bitcoin) and head to test support areas. The answers to these questions will determine the market's direction in the coming days and weeks. Based on that, we have three scenarios to follow, and it may approach the stop-loss defined here.