1. Daily Trend Structure
The main trend is still in the pullback correction phase of a continuing bull market, but the recent two consecutive bearish candles have clearly broken the short-term bullish rhythm. Additionally, yesterday closed with a medium bearish candle, confirming the support at EMA60, and it is currently oscillating above it.
MACD is converging again after a golden cross at a high level and is about to form a death cross, indicating that short-term momentum is waning.
Trading volume has moderately increased, suggesting that the current selling pressure has not yet been fully released, and the bulls have not completely absorbed the sell-off.
2. 1-Hour Chart Structure
A significant spike followed by a pullback has just formed, along with a death cross at EMA, currently the price is under pressure below EMA60 and EMA144 (moving average resistance zone).
MACD failed after a golden cross below the zero line, transitioning into sideways oscillation with weak directional movement. In the short term, a weak rebound or consolidation may occur.
Volume has significantly decreased, indicating that the rebound lacks strength and the upward momentum is weak.
3. Key Price Ranges
Upper resistance levels: 106800 (EMA144 resistance) / 107800 (recent rebound high) / 110000 (emotional round number)
Lower support levels: 104000 (previous daily support) / 102500 (previous low range) / 100372 (previous low extreme defense)
Bearish Strategy (Recommended Priority)
Entry Point: Rebound to around 106500 meets resistance and fails
Stop Loss: Above 107800 (breaks above rebound)
Take Profit: 104000 / 102500 / 100500 (in batches)
1. Signal Confirmation
Bears need to wait for a rebound resistance before entering (a stagnation bearish candle appears on the 5-minute or 15-minute level)
Bulls need to confirm the appearance of a bullish candle at the daily level before considering an attempt (preferably a strong volume bullish candle)
2. Position Control
The daily structure is clearly weakening, and the rebound is weak, making it unsuitable for heavy one-sided bets at current levels
(Does not constitute investment advice)
