Every time there is a war in the Middle East, the cryptocurrency market tends to shake, but often rebounds afterward. For example, during the 2020 US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin rose by 50% in a month; during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, there were similar patterns.

This decline has several special points:

1. Escalation of war risk: Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities may trigger direct retaliation from Iran, and even US intervention, leading to a flight of capital due to this systemic risk.

2. Technically oversold: Bitcoin's RSI fell to 35 (oversold zone), and Ethereum broke below the key support of $2500, indicating a technical demand for a rebound.

3. Severe liquidation of leverage: $1.16 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, with 92% being long positions; after the release of panic selling, short covering may drive a rebound.

4. Capital is dominated by shorts: The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts turned negative, indicating that shorts are dominant, but some shorts have started to take profits, potentially building momentum for a rebound.

Key signals to watch for:

1. Geopolitical dynamics: Will Iran retaliate directly? Will the US intervene? If Iran only issues verbal warnings, the market will likely calm down quickly.

2. Capital flow: If BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF sees inflows exceeding $100 million in a single day, it indicates institutions are bottom-fishing, which could lead to a quick rebound.

3. Technical levels: Whether Bitcoin can hold $100,000 and Ethereum can hold $2500 is crucial; if these levels are maintained, the probability of a rebound is high.

Advice for everyone:

• Short-term traders: If the conflict eases, consider testing positions with small amounts at Bitcoin $102,000 and Ethereum $2500, with stop-loss orders set. If the situation worsens, it’s better to stay in cash.

• Long-term holders: Wars will not change the long-term trend, especially after Bitcoin's halving (which occurred in April 2024), increasing its scarcity; consider gradually increasing positions.

In conclusion:

The rebound time after this decline is likely between 3-14 days, depending on how the conflict evolves. However, in the long run, the trend for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains unchanged, with institutional funds still flowing in and the post-halving scarcity supporting prices. Therefore, short-term fluctuations present opportunities; hold on long-term without panic. #IsraelIranConflict