$BTC Bitcoin returns after the main catalysts of the decline have surpassed 64.6% since 2010, suggesting that the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East could be a buying opportunity for BTC.

Despite trading near all-time highs, the Bitcoin Puell multiple remains in the discount zone, indicating institutional accumulation and undervalued market conditions.

The chart shows Bitcoin's performance during geopolitical events on a logarithmic scale. The average performance (green line) remains relatively stable around 100 before a risk event but increases after the event, peaking between 30 and 40 days later, within the minimum and maximum range (shaded area). This pattern suggests that the current decline could be a temporary market reaction, with historical precedents pointing to substantial gains in the coming weeks.

This rare divergence, intensified by the reduction of block rewards due to the halving in April 2024, indicates undervaluation and suggests that the market is driven by institutional demand or supply constraints, rather than selling pressure from miners.