The price of XRP, which had recently risen along with other altcoins, has fallen again. The retraction was driven by an atmosphere of uncertainty in the crypto market, exacerbated by fears regarding new global trade policies. Specifically, the announcement of unilateral tariffs by Donald Trump and their potential impact on international transactions triggered a downward trend.

Although there has been some progress in negotiations between the United States and China, expectations for a quick resolution to the trade conflict have not materialized. In this scenario, XRP investors remain attentive to developments in the regulatory and judicial spheres.

SEC lawsuit enters decisive phase

One of the most awaited dates by XRP investors is June 16, when a new phase of the process between Ripple, the asset issuer, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) begins.

Despite the optimism shown by Ripple's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, about a near outcome, the recent rejection of an important motion by Judge Analisa Torres delayed that expectation.

“4 days left: SEC vs Ripple. The Ripple vs. SEC case may finally conclude on June 16. This case has been shrouded in a cloud of $XRP for years, but a resolution could unlock significant institutional interest, momentum for ETFs, and global regulatory clarity. The countdown has begun,” wrote John Squire on X (formerly Twitter).

This setback increased uncertainty surrounding the process and may influence the asset's price performance in the short term. The SEC is expected to present a new update to the U.S. Court of Appeals, which could alter the current timeline of the court's decision.

Even without the expectation of an immediate verdict, the proximity of a definition may move the market and impact the price of XRP.

Innovations support long-term fundamentals

While legal instability generates volatility, advancements in XRP technology may sustain its value in the long term.

The XRP Ledger gained prominence by enabling the tokenization of U.S. Treasury securities through the Ondo Finance platform. The initiative reinforces the utility of XRP as a transactional tool on the blockchain.

Moreover, BeInCrypto reported that the correlation between XRP and Bitcoin remains high, with an index of 0.91. This indicates that BTC movements have a strong influence on XRP behavior — any significant appreciation of Bitcoin may act as a bullish catalyst for the altcoin.

Short and long-term outlooks

Despite positive innovations and potential regulatory advances, the short-term outlook for XRP remains uncertain.

In recent weeks, the asset has failed to overcome the resistance of $2.33. If Bitcoin retraces to $105,000, it is likely that XRP will follow the downward trend and fall to $2.10.

On the other hand, an appreciation of BTC combined with favorable court decisions could lead XRP to break the barrier of $2.33, opening up space for a more consistent rise.

In this context, analyst CasiTrades classified June 16 as a decisive milestone, based on important projections from the Fibonacci tool.

“Here we are, less than a week away, and the consolidation of #XRP will end on that date. That doesn’t mean you have to wait until then. This is what is called a forced decision point in the market… The entire consolidation structure is reaching its final moments. The price has stagnated. The momentum is latent: this is exactly how major market movements are born,” noted @CasiTrades on X.

In summary, as investors monitor the legal developments involving Ripple and the movements of Bitcoin, June 16 emerges as a turning point that could alter the trajectory of XRP's price.

Still, given the characteristic volatility of the crypto asset market, short-term prospects remain uncertain. On the other hand, the long-term scenario remains favorable for those betting on the potential of the currency.