The path to stable profitability in trading depends on many factors: trading style, approach to learning, psychological traits, and discipline. Here’s a detailed breakdown based on your request and current data.
Main idea: profit is a byproduct of mastery
Traders who do not chase quick money but focus on skills reach stable profitability faster. Statistically, 80–90% of traders lose their deposit in the first year due to a lack of a systematic approach (data from Binance Futures, 2024). Those who survive spend 1.5–5 years to achieve stable profits.
Does trading style affect the speed of learning? 🗓
• Scalping and day trading:
◦ Pros: More trades (dozens daily) = faster experience accumulation. For example, a scalper can execute 500 trades in a month, while a positional trader may do 5–10.
◦ Cons: High stress and demands on reaction. If the style does not match the psychotype (for example, impulsive people find it hard to control risks), the experience will be destructive. 70% of scalpers blow their deposits due to overtrading (data from Deribit, 2023).
• Swing trading and positional trading:
◦ Pros: Less emotional pressure, more time for analysis. Experience accumulates through systematic work with trade history (trader's journal, backtesting).
◦ Cons: Fewer trades, so learning is slower. For example, a positional trader may wait for an entry point for weeks.
• Conclusion: Style is not the main thing — compatibility with your character and lifestyle is important. Scalping is faster for experience, but without discipline it leads to losses. Swing trading is safer for beginners.
Stages on the path to profitability 📍
1 Loss stage (3 months – 1 year):
◦ Goal: Learn to preserve the deposit rather than to earn.
◦ Problems: Emotional trades, FOMO, ignoring risk management. 90% of beginners lose 50–100% of their deposit at this stage.
◦ What to do: Learn the basic principles (risks of 1–2% per trade, stop-losses), keep a trade journal, trade on demo. For example, $BTC ($105,428 on 13.06.2025) is volatile — without stops, a $10k trade can result in a $1k loss within an hour.
2 Breakeven stage (6 months – 2–3 years):
◦ Goal: Stop systematically losing. The result hovers around zero (±5% per month).
◦ Problems: Periodic plan disruptions, influence of news (e.g., panic due to Iran-Israel).
◦ What to do: Refine the strategy, analyze trades (journal with reasons for entry/exit), avoid overtrading. For example, a trader with 20 trades a month, where 60% are profitable, can break even in 6–12 months.
3 Profit stage (1.5–3 years and more):
◦ Goal: Stable profit (5–10% per month).
◦ Signs: Discipline, clear strategy, stress resistance. For example, a trader with ROI of 5% per month can double their deposit ($10k → $20k) in a year.
◦ What to do: Scale the strategy but do not increase risks.
Independently or with a mentor? 👨🏫
• With a mentor:
◦ Pros: A mentor provides a proven system, cuts out mistakes (FOMO, overtrading), saves time. According to Investopedia, traders with mentors achieve breakeven 30–50% faster.
◦ Cons: Cost (courses $500–5,000), risk of falling for scammers. Check reputation (X-posts, reviews).
◦ Example: A mentor can teach trading $ETH ($2,631) in the liquidity zone ($2,400), reducing losing trades by 20%.
• Independently:
◦ Pros: Flexibility, deeper understanding through personal mistakes.
◦ Cons: Longer path (3–5 years), several blown deposits. 80% of self-taught traders quit trading due to burnout (data from Reddit, r/DayTrading).
◦ Example: A self-taught trader may spend a year understanding why $BTC drops to $99,200 due to liquidity, while a mentor can explain it in a week.
• Conclusion: A mentor saves time and money, but self-learning works if you are disciplined and willing to make mistakes.
How do personal qualities affect the outcome? 🥸
Different traders with the same strategy achieve different results due to psychological traits. Key factors:
• Discipline: Adhering to the plan (risks of 1–2%, stop-losses) increases chances of profitability by 40% (data from Myfxbook).
• Adaptability: The ability to learn from mistakes reduces the loss phase by 3–6 months. For example, analyzing a trade on $SOL ($182) where you broke risk helps avoid repetition.
• Time: Traders who dedicate 20+ hours per week (analytics, backtesting) reach breakeven 1–2 years faster.
• Stress resistance: 60% of traders lose due to panic during volatility (e.g., a 5% drop in $BTC due to Iran). Meditation or breaks reduce impulsiveness by 30%.
• Risk perception: Risky traders (5–10% per trade) blow their deposits 90% of the time, while conservative traders (1–2%) survive 70% of the time.
How much time is needed?
• Medium term: 1.5–3 years for stable profitability (5% per month).
◦ With a mentor: 1–2 years.
◦ Independently: 3–5 years.
• Example: A trader who started in 2023 with $1,000 trading $BTC ($30k at that time) could achieve 5% per month by 2025 ($105,428) if they adhered to a 1% risk and analyzed trades.
• Asset dependency: Crypto ($BTC, $ETH) is more volatile than forex or stocks, so experience accumulates faster, but losses are also bigger.
My thoughts
Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Focusing on profit burns the deposit, while focusing on skills (risks, analysis, discipline) leads to stability. For example, a trader waiting for $BTC at $99,200 (liquidity zone) instead of FOMO at $108,000 earns 20–30% more often. Choose a style that fits your psychotype, keep a trade journal, and do not react to noise (Iran, Musk). With a mentor, it’s faster, but independent learning provides deeper understanding. #TradingMindset
Forecast and recommendations 🔮
• Short-term (2025):
◦ Wait for $BTC in the zone of $99,200–98,200 for a long position (70% probability of correction due to BVOL24H). $ETH to $2,400, $SOL to $170.
◦ Keep a trade journal: 1 hour of analysis weekly reduces losses by 15%.
• Long-term (3–5 years):
◦ Stable ROI of 5–10% per month is realistic after 1.5–3 years of practice. For example, a $10k deposit can grow to $50k in 3 years at 5% per month.
◦ Risk management (1–2% per trade) increases survival chances to 70%.
• Risks:
◦ FOMO due to news (Iran-Israel, CPI 11.06 >2.5%) can provoke impulsive trades.
◦ Overtrading: more than 10 trades a week reduces ROI by 20%.
Conclusion
To become a profitable trader, it takes 1.5–5 years depending on the approach, style, and discipline. Focus on skills, not money: keep a journal, follow risk management, ignore noise. $BTC ($105,428), $ETH ($2,631), $SOL ($182) present opportunities, but without a system, you will become liquidity for whales. Patience and learning will lead to profit! 😎 #CryptoTrading #Discipline #Learning