The tense situation between Iran and Israel has entered a highly dangerous phase after Israel launched a preemptive attack on the morning of June 13 (Operation 'Rising Lion'), destroying many military facilities and command centers of Iran. Currently, the whole world is watching Iran's retaliatory response – which could trigger a wave of panic across the financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market.
Below are potential counterattack scenarios that may occur in the next 48 hours (June 13–15, 2025) and detailed analysis of each scenario's impact on Bitcoin and altcoins:
Scenario 1 – Direct attack from Iran using missiles or drones:
The likelihood of this occurring is low to medium as most launch pads and control centers have been targeted by Israel. If Iran still attempts to fire ballistic missiles at Israel, most are likely to be intercepted by defense systems like Iron Dome. However, if a few reach major cities, the global financial markets – including crypto – will react strongly. In this case, BTC may drop 2–5% within a few hours, while altcoins will plummet more deeply due to panic sentiment and money fleeing from risky assets.
Scenario 2 – Indirect attack through proxy groups like Hezbollah (Lebanon) or Houthi (Yemen):
This is the scenario with the highest probability of occurrence. Iran often avoids direct confrontation and chooses close armed groups to attack Israel from the northern border or via the Red Sea. If rockets or drones from Lebanon or Yemen hit civilian targets or infrastructure, BTC may decline by 1–3% but will recover quickly if the situation does not escalate. Conversely, if Israel retaliates strongly or the conflict spreads, crypto may adjust deeper in the short term.
Scenario 3 – Attack on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea:
The likelihood is medium to high. Iran has previously used this tactic to pressure the West and disrupt the energy market. If a large oil tanker is attacked or maritime traffic is disrupted, oil prices could spike and strengthen the USD, thereby putting short-term pressure on BTC. However, in the medium term, this scenario could trigger a flight to safety sentiment, driving capital back to BTC as a non-government asset, similar to the period during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
Scenario 4 – Cyber attack on Israeli or American infrastructure:
The likelihood of this occurring is medium. Iran possesses formidable cyber warfare capabilities and has previously attacked the US banking system as well as water plants in Israel. If a large-scale cyber attack occurs, instability sentiment will spread but usually does not cause immediate panic. BTC may decline slightly but remain stable if the crypto system is not directly affected. However, if this attack targets major financial institutions, concerns about the safety of traditional assets could lead investors to shift towards holding crypto.
Scenario 5 – Assassination of a high-ranking Israeli or American figure abroad:
This is a scenario with low probability, but if it occurs, it would be an extremely serious escalation. Such an assassination could trigger a comprehensive military response from Israel or the US. The global financial markets would certainly be shaken, and BTC could fall more than 5% in a short period. Altcoins would be heavily sold off as capital would flee from risky assets to preserve value.
Conclusion: In the next 48 hours, the crypto market will be very sensitive to any moves from Iran or Iran-aligned forces. If Iran retaliates by causing actual damage, even indirectly, panic sentiment could lead to a sharp decline in BTC and altcoins losing tens of billions in market capitalization. In a lighter scenario (merely symbolic or fully intercepted), the market may experience a short-term adjustment then recover quickly.
Trading advice:
This is a high-risk phase. Avoid using large leverage, especially with altcoins. If holding Futures positions, tighten risk management and be ready to close positions if BTC falls below $104,000. With Spot, only hold top assets like BTC or ETH and wait for clear adjustment phases to deploy capital. Investors should closely monitor the developments of the conflict to react promptly and preserve capital against unexpected fluctuations.
Real-time updates will be provided if the conflict escalates. Please stay tuned to timely adjust your investment strategy.