Capital Economics indicates that if Israel attacks Iran's oil production and export facilities, Brent crude oil prices could soar to between $80 and $100 per barrel, potentially driving up inflation.

The company's economists suggest that such a scenario could lead to an increase in inflation rates in developed markets by about 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points by the end of this year.

They are skeptical that a surge in oil prices will prompt OPEC+ oil-producing countries to increase output, thereby limiting the duration of the inflation shock, but any rise in energy inflation will be another reason for central banks to be cautious in cutting interest rates, and the Federal Reserve should also maintain a wait-and-see approach for now.