Matrixport estimates that $132 billion of potential crypto company IPOs could impact BTC. Strangely, they dedicated today's report to this, rather than the events in the Middle East. But in the long run, the topic of crypto company IPOs is indeed more important for the market.
According to #Matrixport estimates, the upcoming wave of IPOs in the crypto sector could significantly impact the dynamics of #BTC and the entire market.
In their opinion, it is still unclear whether the last rise of #BTC was the beginning of a sustainable trend or a temporary 'sugar spike' against the backdrop of news about upcoming IPOs.
Billions of dollars of new capital may flood the market, and Wall Street's interest in maintaining high BTC prices is evident - this benefits both banks and the issuers themselves. Wall Street is actively preparing for a series of IPOs in the crypto sector:
"In our 2025 forecast presentation (in Hong Kong, in February), we emphasized that Wall Street has a clear incentive to keep Bitcoin prices at high levels in 2025. Many crypto companies are considering going public, and a strong BTC market stimulates investor interest and provides generous commissions for bankers"
Who is going public:
Already placed: #Circle (about $23.5 billion), #GalaxyDigital.
Next in line:
- Bullish - estimated at about $13.5 billion.
- Gemini - about $10.5 billion.
- Kraken - about $16.2 billion (expected in Q4 2025 / Q1 2026).
Relatively inflated multiples: Circle is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 340x compared to 42x for Coinbase and 40x for Galaxy - this is a factor of potential overvaluation.
The risk for the market is that if the BTC rally is mainly driven by capital inflow due to the #Circle IPO, there is a risk of a weakening movement after the placement. However, new liquidity may partially redistribute into crypto ETFs and other instruments, supporting the BTC price.
The coming weeks will show: either a transition to consolidation or the momentum will be boosted by new liquidity from the public equity market.