$BTC grinding at $105,172 - feels like we're in that "quiet before the storm" phase šŖļø
What I'm Seeing š
Fear & Greed Index sitting at 71 (Greed territory) but price action is telling a different story. We're consolidating hard between $103.5K-$106.2K with key resistance at $106,202 and support at $103,491.
RSI, MACD, and other momentum indicators are showing signs of bearish divergence which has me cautious short-term. But here's the thing - as long as we stay above the 0.5 Fib and 100/200 EMA zone, dips are getting bought.
The Bigger Picture šÆ
ETF inflows are still strong and institutional demand is renewed. On-chain metrics like MVRV Z-Score and long-term holder accumulation look healthy - this cycle is just moving slower than previous ones.
Some technical analysis suggests we could top out mid-July 2025, but other forecasts are calling for $115K+ by July. Wide range, but all pointing higher eventually.
My Take š
I'm cautiously bullish here. A correction might be coming based on indicators, but analysts are eyeing $125K after that.
Playing it tight - bullish above $106.2K, defensive below $103.5K. Short-term volatility is high, so waiting for momentum resets before adding size.
The greed index says "sell" but the fundamentals say "accumulate". I'm going with the fundamentals on this one, just with smaller position sizes.
Range-bound markets are boring until they're not š¤·āāļø