$BTC

The following is a comprehensive analysis of the recent market dynamics of Bitcoin ($BTC), based on the latest data from June 2025:

### ⚡️ **1. Price Trends and Market Volatility**

- **Current Price**: As of June 12, Bitcoin is priced at **$105,900**, down 2.5% in the last 24 hours, and has retraced approximately 5.4% from the historical high of **$111,970** on May 22.

- **Volatility Triggers**: Escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East (Israel may launch military strikes on Iran) and Trump's tariff threats have triggered risk-off sentiment, leading to capital withdrawal from risk assets.

### 📊 **2. Key Support and Institutional Funds**

- **Technical Support**: $100,000 has become a strong psychological and technical support level, with the 50-day moving average (around $105,000) providing short-term cushioning; a drop below this level may trigger a deeper correction.

- **Institutional Holdings**: Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital, with iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) managing **$7.2 billion** in assets, ranking among the top five in ETF flows in the U.S., with a net inflow of **$12 billion** this year, indicating solid long-term allocation demand.

### 🌐 **3. Macroeconomic and Policy Impacts**

- **Rate Cut Expectations**: Weak inflation data from the U.S. in May (core PPI year-on-year 3.1%) has led the market to bet on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, benefiting risk assets.

- **Regulatory Progress**: The SEC's open attitude towards token ETFs like Solana, along with the implementation of the MiCA framework, enhances institutional confidence.

### 🔮 **4. Market Outlook**

- **Short-term Target**: If it breaks through the resistance at $108,000, it is expected to challenge the previous high of $112,000, with a medium-term target of $137,000 (technical pattern target).

- **Long-term Forecast**: Fundstrat predicts it will reach **$150K-$250K** by the end of the year, while Bernstein sees **$200K**, driven by global liquidity easing and corporate treasury allocations (such as MicroStrategy).

> 💎 **Summary**: Despite geopolitical risks triggering a correction, Bitcoin maintains a bullish structure supported by institutional funds and favorable policies, with $100,000 becoming a dividing line between bulls and bears; a breakthrough of $112,000 may start a new rally.