$BTC

> **Price and Volatility**

> As of June 20, 2025, BTC is currently priced at approximately **$105,859**, with a slight increase of 0.85% over the past 24 hours. Previously, influenced by hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (with a projected rate cut reduced to 25 basis points in 2025), BTC had sharply dropped to the critical support level of $103,000, with a daily decline exceeding 3.7%. The technical indicators showed oversold signals at one point (RSI dropping to 28).

> **Key Driving Factors**

> - **Institutional Behavior**: Despite price volatility, there has been continuous net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs (BlackRock raised $267 million in a single day), and whale addresses have reached a six-year high in holdings, indicating long-term confidence.

> - **On-Chain Data**: 70% of the BTC supply has not moved in nearly a year, and exchange balances have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020, exacerbating supply tightness.

> - **Macro Risks**: Uncertainty in FOMC policies and rising correlation with U.S. stocks pose short-term pressure, but cooling inflation (U.S. CPI dropping to 3.1%) supports a long-term bullish outlook.

> **Strategy Recommendations**

> In the short term, consider gradually building positions in the **$103,000–$104,000** range, with stop-loss set below $102,000; if the resistance level of $106,000 is broken, a rebound to $108,000 may occur.

**Future Focus**: The Federal Reserve's policy path, ETF fund flows, and the timing of the altcoin season (expected after September) will dominate the market in the second half of the year.