Can traders really predict the future market trends?

My answer is very simple — no.

We don't have a time machine, and we can't travel to the future. The so-called "predicting future trends" is essentially an illusion. The market is too complex, and no one can predict with 100% certainty what will happen next.

However, while we can't foresee, we can do one very important thing: assess "which trends are more likely to occur" and determine "which positions hold more advantages."

For example, when the Chinese stock market falls below 3000 points, around 2800 points, there is often state intervention, capital entry, and a strong willingness to buy the dip; whereas chasing after more at 3400 points clearly increases the risk. Comparing the two, it is possible to analyze which has a higher probability of rising and which has a more favorable risk-reward ratio. Trading is not about prediction but about assessing "where to act for a better chance of winning."

This is what we really need to do in trading: identify positions with "probability advantages," enter the market in the direction of the trend, exit when the advantage is gone, and wait for the next opportunity.

The essence of trading is not to guess the future but to stand in positions with a higher chance of success and repeatedly execute a logical operating system. Not being able to predict the future is okay; being able to recognize advantages is enough for you to go far.