$BTC intraday strategy.
Right now, everyone's focus is on macro news, especially whether Iran will retaliate. Someone joked whether Iran might use a nuclear bomb to blow BTC up to 90,000, haha, that's a bit exaggerated, but we still need to analyze it seriously.
Recently, the geopolitical atmosphere has begun to tense up.
Trump has made a strong statement, saying that Iran can never have nuclear weapons, and the U.S. Central Command is on high alert. From his tone, it seems he doesn't have much confidence himself. However, I personally think the possibility of nuclear weapons is quite low. Iran is unlikely to go that far and will probably end up back at the negotiating table. But Iran is not a minor player; it can't be easily dealt with like Palestine. They might take some actions, such as issuing condemnations, rallying allies, strengthening defenses, and making tough talk to create a tense atmosphere. Occasional localized conflicts or small bombings are also possible.
What impact does this have on BTC? Right now, the spot market for Bitcoin seems stable, with no major sell-offs, but the futures market is a bit chaotic, scaring off some people. How the international situation develops next, whether there will be favorable news, and whether the spot market can be stabilized is crucial. If the spot market starts to sell off on a large scale, the market could turn bearish. So, Trump, hurry up and ask Powell to cut interest rates, save the situation!
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, BTC found support at 102 (assuming it's 102k) yesterday, which is a key level, capable of rising or falling. Next, we look at the 100k threshold; this is a watershed moment that will determine whether it continues to fluctuate upwards or adjusts downwards. That pin-like movement yesterday was likely caused by small traders. Overall, the upward trend is still strong, with no major issues in liquidity or spot premiums.
For short-term trading, I think it's possible to take a small position long and run away with the profits.
Don't be greedy. The upper target levels can be 105 (105k) and 106.8 (106.8k).
There probably won't be much action during the day; the market may be relatively bland. Brothers looking to short should keep an eye in the evening, especially on U.S. stocks. If U.S. stocks crash because of this and keep falling, then consider going short. The levels of 105 and 106.8 are also quite suitable for shorting, after all, if Iran really retaliates, BTC may further dip.
Overall, BTC's movement is somewhat being led by macro news. Whether Iran will cause trouble and how the market reacts, we need to watch and play along. However, spot traders shouldn't panic too much; looking at the long term, BTC's fundamentals are still solid. Just play around a bit intraday, high risk, high reward, but don't bet all your savings on it!
What do you think? Will Iran take action, or is it just market panic? Feel free to leave a comment, and if you find it useful, give a thumbs up to support, stay alert, and let's continue!
