The market is not afraid of ghost stories, but it is afraid of the understanding king tweeting at midnight! Once the tariff cannon fires, whether it’s gold or digital currency, they all get smashed first!
Brothers, this drop is really brutal! The digital currency crashed directly to 103,700! Does it feel like your heart is bleeding? Who do we blame for this? I see that the core issue is that the understanding king Trump (let’s be civil) is stirring things up again!
Case + Emotion:
At three o'clock in the morning, people are sleeping soundly, and over there, the 'understanding king' throws a 'bomb': 'Tariff ultimatum'! What does that mean? It means giving the world two weeks (deadline July 9) to either obediently accept his terms or 'get lost'! This posture is like a mafia collecting protection money: 'Accept or get lost', no negotiation!
Originally, the trade agreement was set to expire in early July, and with the tariff cannon reloaded, can the market not be dampened? The capital is scared and running out like headless flies! Risk assets (our cryptocurrency market being the first) have become the biggest punching bag.
And that's not all! A few days ago, this old brother said mysteriously in front of the camera at the White House, 'Listen, there might be a fight! Missiles whizzing! Americans in Iran, hurry up and evacuate!' Although he later added 'not immediately', but this kind of vibe is no different from holding a smoking grenade and saying 'I don’t know when it will explode'. Who can take that? The global market trembled again.
The Crow's viewpoint:
Look at the US stock market, it was a bit smug yesterday and rose a little, after all, it's an 'old hand'. What about our cryptocurrency market? It’s like a naïve newcomer just out of school, very tender! Slightly disturbed by the wind, and the faces turn pale, the drop is so bad that it’s 'unrecognizable'! What’s the most tragic? In just 24 hours, over 246,000 brothers globally were liquidated, with 1.132 billion dollars turning to dust! The biggest single order was a digital currency long position that exploded with 201 million dollars on Binance! Brothers, how many leveraged corpses are behind that! Isn’t the wind on the rooftop cold? Those market makers are really ruthless; money isn’t earned slowly, it’s all about crashing down in a few hours!
Federal Reserve: A mouse in a windbag (for example):
While the understanding king is frantically playing with fire, Fed Chairman Powell has almost become the 'scapegoat', getting quite emo! Why? Because the economic data is just too terrible! Job growth has wilted, and inflation seems to have softened. Another cut came on Thursday:
The Producer Price Index (PPI, which reflects production costs) in May is ugly!
What's even scarier is that last week, the number of first-time unemployment claims soared to 248,000!
The number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits has surged to 1.956 million, hitting a new high since the end of 2021!
This data is like directly giving the Federal Reserve a few big slaps! The understanding king is angrily scolding: Powell has gone from 'being clueless' to 'a disaster'! Screaming 'You must lower interest rates! Lower by 100 basis points (1%)! Can’t we pay less interest?!' His assistant Vance also shouted 'Not lowering interest rates is dereliction of duty!' (Although Treasury Secretary Yellen said CPI is still okay). Powell is really in a tough spot now: If he lowers rates, it looks weak, fearing inflation will come back; if he doesn’t lower, with such poor economic data, the understanding king scolds, and the market scolds, he’s really caught in the middle!
The Crow believes:
China plays its trump card: The big A shares are seeing a surge in rare earth stocks! Why? Because we hold this strong card of rare earth! Stocks related to Shenzhen are jumping up. The market seems to have a bit of a 'let’s make a fuss' mentality: Fight! Hurry up and fight! If rare earths go up, I can earn! (This mindset is really complicated...)
Current state of the cryptocurrency market: After that wave of 'free fall' last night, the digital currency crashed face-first to over 103,000, with Ethereum also plummeting to 2500. After such a harsh fall, it should take a breath and bounce back. Looking at the chart, it seems there’s a bit of support around 103000-104000, maybe it’s some protective buying, or perhaps some bottom fishing. Ethereum is weaker; there are rumors of financial companies having issues, luckily it hasn’t broken 2400 for now. Whether it can bounce back depends on the face of the digital currency 'big brother'. The current market is like dancing on the edge of a knife! The understanding king's 'tariff nuclear bomb' and 'war rhetoric' are ticking time bombs hanging over our heads, capable of blowing the cryptocurrency market to pieces at any moment! July 9 (tariff ultimatum deadline) and August 10 (non-farm data), these dates are marked in bright red on the calendar!
The only hope (and viewpoint): Brothers, don’t be too desperate! The expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates is like a firefly in the dark, the last thought supporting 'the bull returns quickly'! Now these weak economic data (CPI, PPI, poor employment) are actually adding fuel to the expectation of a rate cut! Everyone is betting that Powell can’t withstand the pressure to cut rates in September. The cryptocurrency market itself also has a bit of good news: Although ETF funds are flowing in slowly due to the broader environment, they are still coming in; potential SOL-ETF through expectations; stories of institutional entry; subtle changes in regulatory attitudes... all these are like small umbrellas trying to hold up in a storm; a little shelter is better than none.
How to proceed in the future? (Core view):
I think, after a big drop, there will always be a bounce, technically there is this demand. However! The rebound could be killed at any time by a new tweet from the understanding king or news of the tariff stick coming down! 103,000 and 2,450 (Ethereum) are the immediate small supports, but the real test is the 'judgment month' from July to September!
Will the tariff stick come down? If it really starts, the global market will be a bloody storm.
Will the expectation of a rate cut in September come true? If it does, it could be a lifeline; if it falls through, that would be adding insult to injury.
And there’s the debt ceiling issue, which might also get involved!
The big bosses in the institutions (like Seiler, Bitwise) are touting 150k, 200k+ for digital currency, it sounds exciting, but the premise is:
We must first survive the storm that the understanding king has stirred up!
The Federal Reserve's 'floodgates' really need to be opened! The astronomical debt of the United States is indeed the best fuel for the 'digital gold' story.
Brothers, this roller coaster driven by the 'understanding king', fueled by the Federal Reserve, with global debt as the backdrop, has just reached the steepest slope! Will it soar to the clouds or fall into a deep pit? We can only fasten our seatbelts and keep our eyes wide open!
Lastly, don’t forget the blood-curdling advice from that old 'leek': Money is earned by waiting, not by reckless operation! Of course, the premise is... your position is still on the bus and hasn’t been thrown off by this bump!
The Crow just wants to ask: Brothers, can your positions still hold? Are you ready to welcome the upcoming 'judgment month'? Let’s chat in the comments!
