Israel's missiles are being funded by multiple armies! Bitcoin has directly dropped below $103,000, falling by 5,000 points. Yesterday, Sweet Dream warned in an article (Is BTC about to crash? Bitcoin's Harvest Night, will it continue tonight? Is ETH about to break 3K? Altcoins are bleeding heavily, on-chain storms, will this coin soar?) to be cautious and suggested using $109,000 as a defense level, aiming to short on highs, with upper pressure levels at [108,200-108,500]. As for the support below, it is at the $107,300 line. If it falls below $107,300 again, first watch $106,800, then $106,000. Last night, it fell as expected, with Sponge making a profit of 464%!
Bitcoin (BTC)
The currency currently has a rebound demand, with room for both high and low movement. If it can regain above $104,500, it is expected to further challenge $106,500. During yesterday's session, due to sudden news pressure, BTC briefly fell below the key technical level around $106,500—this position is also the 20-day moving average and the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and it retreated to the upper track area of the previous downward channel. Currently, short-term support is concentrated in the previous low range of $100,300–$103,000, and buying opportunities still exist. If the price returns above the 'orange trend line', it is expected to open new high space; however, if it falls below the 'red trend line', caution should be taken as the market may deteriorate, increasing the probability of a temporary peak.
Bitcoin is currently forming a potential 'M head' structure on the daily chart. The price has not yet fallen below the neckline shown in the chart, and the bulls are still in a relatively safe area in the short term.
However, once it effectively falls below this neckline support, the M-top pattern will be confirmed, and the daily level may face greater adjustment risks, which should not be ignored. Bulls need to be highly alert to the gains and losses of this key position.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum spiked to the lower Bollinger Band daily support this morning and then rebounded slightly. The current price of Ethereum is $2,530, and the cost-performance ratio of buying $ETH at this stage is much higher than that of $BTC.
From a macro trend perspective: Ethereum has not yet fully released its potential in this cycle and is currently in the 'power accumulation period' of the second half of the bull market. In addition to the ETH spot ETF, several fundamental catalysts are continuously advancing, including the deflationary effect brought by the destruction mechanism, Layer 2 ecosystem development, the rise of Restaking narratives, and the gradual implementation of the RWA (real-world assets) concept, which collectively constitute positive support.
Ethereum is currently in a 'large cycle oscillation recovery period', with prices oscillating within a wide range of $1,600-$3,200. The main funds have not formed a trend breakthrough, and a breakout above the upper edge of the box will become a key signal for the medium-term trend. The strong support below is at $1,600, and unless an extreme black swan event occurs, it is unlikely to break; while if it breaks above $3,000-$3,200, it is expected to open up upward space towards $4,000+, with a clear cost-performance advantage at this stage.
The operation is primarily based on 'box thinking' and supplemented by wave operations. It is recommended to phase in buying in the $2,200-$2,500 range, avoiding heavy positions at once, focusing on position management and risk control, and patiently waiting for the volume breakout signal after the trend is clear.
Altcoins have collectively 'dropped badly'.
The ETH/BTC trading pair has fallen below 0.025, indicating a further flow of funds back to Bitcoin, and the situation for altcoins goes without saying. Coins like Virtual, AAVE, and LaunchCoin have recently experienced significant pullbacks. The rhythm of this market is extremely tricky, and the operational difficulty is very high—altcoins should not be treated lightly, even leading projects are not exempt.
The current market rhythm presents an 'extreme pull and drop' pattern: either a continuous surge or a continuous sell-off. The previous rhythm of bottom fishing and running at the sight of a rise is no longer applicable; instead, a shift to a mindset of following the trend is needed—daring to buy on dips and sell on rises.
What does it mean? It means that one cannot recklessly bottom-fish at the first sign of a pullback because real rebounds often occur after a sharp drop followed by a 'kill the bulls'. Once it starts, the rhythm is very fast, and missing it makes it hard to get back in. Mainstream coins will still oscillate with high volatility, suitable for spot trading; however, altcoins can easily fall into a one-sided downward spiral without trend resonance.
In terms of strategy, altcoins still need to wait for Bitcoin to stabilize, especially waiting for BTC to form a clear 'W bottom' structure on the daily level before considering phased low buys of quality targets. Patience is key, and do not rush to bottom-fish.
