🔍 Overview of the general market
• On May 22, Bitcoin's price reached $111,861–$111,970, marking new record levels.
• This rally was supported by massive inflows into ETF funds and temporary geopolitical disruptions that shifted liquidity towards alternative assets.
• Despite the current correction wave that has stalled the price around 104–105K, the outlook remains positive on most systems.
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📈 Technical analysis on the short and medium timeframe
Key technical levels:
• Nearby resistance: 112–114K.
• Potential target with a breakout: 120–137K (based on Fibonacci extensions).
• Initial support: 107K.
• Secondary support: 100K — an important psychological and technical barrier.
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🌍 Fundamental analysis
• Ongoing institutional ETF inflows: total assets reached $132 billion in May, with $2.5 to $4.2 billion monthly.
• Weak global monetary environment: 9% dollar weakness and liquidity surplus encourages alternative assets.
• Increased regulatory clarity in the US and Europe (like MiCA approval), reducing legal risks for institutions.
• Variable risks: Trump's re-imposition of tariffs or new escalation may adversely affect the balance and incoming flows.
🔮 Expected scenarios
📌 Trading strategy
• For day/week traders:
• Wait for bullish reversal signals near 105–107K supported by volume.
• Closing below 105K with a strong daily close indicates a potential for deeper retracement.
• For medium/long-term investors:
• Continued institutional inflows and changes in the monetary environment (like a weak dollar) provide a good opportunity to maintain positions.
• Positions can be reinforced on any correction to 100–105K.
