Altcoins: Market Analysis (Risk Warning and Opportunity Outlook)

Short-term risks intensifying

In the macro environment of escalating geopolitical conflicts, the altcoin market has experienced systematic selling. As a high-risk asset class, its decline significantly exceeds that of mainstream cryptocurrencies, highlighting a sharp increase in market risk aversion.

In the past 24 hours, there has been a notable downward trend, especially with previously popular MEME coins, L2 scaling, and AI concept sectors experiencing a dramatic collapse from high levels. This indicates that funds are fleeing from risk assets to mainstream cryptocurrencies or shifting to a holding and wait-and-see strategy.

Key observation points: If Bitcoin falls below $103,000 and Ethereum drops below the critical level of $2,480, the altcoin market may face accelerated downward risks.

Currently, there are two major signals to be cautious about: there are no signs of new funds entering stablecoins. The market fear index has yet to show signs of stabilization.

Recommended strategy: Maintain a cash position and wait in the short term to avoid volatility risks.

Mid-term potential opportunities: The window for U.S. Treasury bond expirations in late June may become a turning point for the market. If the following conditions occur, it may trigger a rebound: Ethereum's price stabilizes first, and leading public chains (such as SOL/AVAX) or top L2 projects (such as ARB/OP) start to lead the charge.

At that time, some selected targets may show explosive short-term opportunities, and it is necessary to closely monitor the flow of funds and resonance signals from technical analysis.