Looking at Wall Street's latest predictions on interest rate cuts, it’s getting more and more interesting——

1. No rate cut faction: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America → Insist "there will be no rate cuts this year"

These institutions are deeply tied to the traditional credit system; they do not want interest rates to drop too quickly because the debt yield spread structure and demand for short-term bonds are their fundamental sources of income.

With stable interest rates, they can continue to engage in carry trade and regulatory arbitrage.

2. Moderate dovish faction: Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Nomura → Predict "one rate cut in December"

This faction seems to be taking a strategic compromise, betting on a soft landing + policy balance point:

On one hand, they cannot completely deny the downward trend of inflation and must not overlook the political pressure for rate cuts; on the other hand, they cannot bet too quickly on liquidity easing, fearing early decoupling or being backfired by the data.

3. Aggressive rate cut faction: UBS, Wells Fargo → Predict "four rate cuts starting in September"

Their core logic is not about a soft landing, but betting — if there’s no cut, it will explode.

This faction believes:

A massive explosion in U.S. Treasury supply + a continuously expanding deficit

Geopolitical friction, concentrated refinancing pressure on corporate debt

The Federal Reserve’s "tough talk without action" is merely a temporary avoidance of risk; the risk will ultimately explode

Clearly, due to the Federal Reserve's slow actions + passive response, the divergence in interest rates is starting to spiral out of control, and the market is entering a stage of "each betting on their own, proving their own path."

Now, with continued pressure from those in power, the Federal Reserve's passive rate cuts are just a matter of time.

At this point, it’s advisable for everyone to reassess their positions and consider whether their current allocation logic is still sound.

Always remember a fundamental logic —

When the system’s anchor begins to shake, the market will instinctively seek new pricing benchmarks and value storage consensus.

True major market movements do not occur when everyone predicts correctly, but when all predictions begin to collectively fail.

And $BTC is one of the biggest natural beneficiaries in this "uncertainty structure"!