🔔I took a look at Wall Street's latest interest rate cut predictions, and it’s getting more and more interesting——

1⃣No Rate Cut Camp: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America → Insist "There will be no rate cuts this year"

These institutions are deeply bound to the traditional credit system; they do not want interest rates to drop too quickly, as the debt spread structure and short-term bond demand are their fundamental sources of profit.

With stable interest rates, they can continue to engage in carry trade and regulatory arbitrage.

2⃣Moderate Doves: Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Nomura → Predict "One rate cut in December"

This camp seems to be making a strategic compromise, betting on a soft landing + policy balance point:

On one hand, they cannot completely deny the downward trend of inflation, and cannot ignore the political pressure for rate cuts; on the other hand, they cannot bet on liquidity easing too quickly, fearing premature decoupling or backlash from data.

3⃣Aggressive Rate Cut Camp: UBS, Wells Fargo → Predict "Four rate cuts starting in September"

Their core logic is not a soft landing, but rather betting—if there is no cut, it will explode.

This camp believes:

A massive explosion in U.S. Treasury supply + a continuously expanding deficit

Geopolitical friction and concentrated refinancing pressure on corporate bonds

The Fed's "hard talk without action" is just a temporary avoidance of risk; the risk will eventually explode.

Clearly, due to the Fed's slow actions + passive responses, interest rate discrepancies are starting to spiral out of control, and the market is entering a stage of "each betting on their own, proving their own path."

Now, with the constant pressure from the former president, the Fed being forced into rate cuts is just a matter of time.

At this point, it is advisable for everyone to reassess their positions and consider whether their current allocation logic can still hold steady.

Always remember a fundamental logic——

When the system anchor starts to shake, the market will instinctively seek new pricing benchmarks and value consensus.

A truly significant market movement will not occur when everyone predicts correctly, but will happen the moment all predictions begin to fail collectively.

And $BTC is one of the biggest natural beneficiaries in this "uncertainty structure"!