Trump and Bessent's Major Statements: In-Depth Analysis of Market Impact

Recent statements from key figures regarding economic policy and geopolitical relations may significantly disrupt market expectations:

Core Policy Signals:

Interest Rate Trends: Trump publicly pressures the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, intending to reduce government debt servicing costs. If this expectation strengthens, it will suppress the real yield of the dollar.

Trade Patterns: Signals seeking to ease China-U.S. trade relations are conveyed, but at the same time, potential increases in auto tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding the continuation of tariff policies against China in August are mentioned, creating policy contradictions.

Debt Risks: Bessent warns that if the debt ceiling deadlock re-emerges, it could trigger systemic financial risks (analogous to 2008), constituting a significant tail risk.

Potential Transmission Pathways to the Crypto Market:

Short-Term Positive Factors: Interest Rate Cut Expectations + Weak Dollar Environment: Traditionally beneficial for the valuation of non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin.

Geopolitical Tension Easing Expectations (China-U.S.): Boosts global risk appetite, catalyzing capital flows into risk assets.

Concerns About Fiat Currency Systems: Heightened fears of a debt ceiling crisis enhance Bitcoin's narrative as a 'safe-haven asset'.

Mid-Term Sources of Uncertainty: Risk of Escalating Trade Friction: Repeated tariff policies or shocks to supply chains and growth expectations may trigger market risk aversion.

Questioning Policy Credibility: Vague statements like 'forcing something' may undermine market confidence in policy coherence, amplifying volatility in expectation differences.

Stablecoin Regulatory Evolution: Bessent mentions the connection between stablecoins and the dollar's status, suggesting that regulatory complexities in this area will continue to exist.

Strategic Insights:

Positive expectations have been partially priced in; caution is needed for potential profit-taking pressure after good news materializes. Policy contradictions will act as amplifiers of volatility. Investors are advised to closely monitor: 1) The Federal Reserve's substantial responses to political pressure; 2) The critical tariff window in August; 3) Progress in debt ceiling negotiations. Maintain flexibility and strict risk control, and seek structural opportunities through the market's overreactions to policy signals. In a complex macro environment, discipline is preferable to prediction.

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