Analysis of Ethereum's Technical Landscape: Key Support Range's Bull-Bear Tug of War

Current Coordinate: $2750 (Beijing Time 01:30), Daily close within the 2710-2783 range, precisely retracing the Fibonacci 0.5 key level, the validity of this support is validated by historical data—nearly 90% probability of triggering a technical rebound.

Macroeconomic Trend Dimension:

• EMA Moving Average Cluster (15/30/60/120) maintains a bullish arrangement

• MACD daily golden cross structure is unbroken, and the contraction of volume bars is a healthy adjustment

• Price returns to the Bollinger Band midpoint (2737), with 2800 forming short-term pressure

Key Signals in the Four-Hour Cycle:

1. Bull-Bear Balance Point: The integer mark of 2700 forms dual psychological and technical support

2. Divergence Warning: MACD top divergence triggers a pullback, but DIF-DEA is still operating above the zero axis, not yet reversing the bullish pattern

3. Channel Transition: The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands indicates declining volatility, and the breakout window is approaching

Bull-Bear Strategy Framework:

▶ Bullish Defense Zone (Band 2730-2750)

• Positioning Conditions: Stabilizing at the 2737 midpoint and MACD green bars reappearing

• Target Levels: 2800 (Upper Band) → 2840 (Previous High Platform) → 2888 (Volume Expansion Point)

• Risk Control Red Line: Below 2710 (Stop-loss space ≤ 1.3%)

▶ Bearish Counterattack Zone (Band 2920-2950)

• Trigger Mechanism: False breakout at 2890 strong resistance accompanied by volume exhaustion

• Target Progression: 2850 (Neckline) → 2800 (Psychological Level) → 2745 (Fibonacci 0.618)

• Absolute Defense Line: 2980 (Weekly High Pressure)

Core Principle:

The risk-reward ratio must always be >3:1, and any single trade stop-loss control <1.5%. The current wave is essentially a liquidity washout within a weekly ascending channel; after the oscillation digestion of floating funds in the 2700-2800 range, there is still room for mid-term bullish development.

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