Geopolitical Black Swan Flaps Its Wings
A rain of liquidations falls in the crypto world.
News:
Black Swan Strikes
Middle East war ignites panic in the crypto circle
Israeli airstrikes on Iran, global markets plunge
In the early morning of June 13, Israel launched a military strike on Iran code-named 'Lion's Strength', instantly igniting the Middle East situation. Bitcoin plummeted over 1.5% in 15 minutes, crashing from $106,000 to $103,000, with over $1.011 billion liquidated across the network within 24 hours, affecting 200,000 investors. Panic spread, with funds rushing towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Trump's 'crypto good news' is no match for the impact of war
Although Trump claimed he would establish a 'clear regulatory framework' to support Bitcoin, on the same day he warned: 'Israel's attack could destroy US-Iran nuclear negotiations, and the risk of large-scale conflict has surged.' Geopolitics has become the last straw that breaks the market's back, with institutional funds accelerating their exit (US Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow for six consecutive days).
Leverage bubble bursts, bodies of bulls everywhere
In the week before the crash, the number of open Bitcoin contracts surged by 18%, and the exchange's leverage ratio broke 25 times, forming a 'bullish crowd'. The war triggered a chain reaction of high-leverage positions liquidating, causing a stampede.
Technical Analysis: Death cross green bars expanding, downtrend channel locked in
K-line Pattern: Barefoot Bearish Candle, Bearish Control
Current price $103,910, 4-hour chart shows a large bearish candle (opening $105,671 → closing $103,744), down -1.82%, indicating fierce selling pressure, with bulls offering no resistance.
Key Level: $102,000 (intraday life and death line), breaking it could trigger $640 million in long liquidations, heading straight for the previous low of $100,372.
Indicator Resonance: Bollinger Bands opening downward, MACD death cross
Bollinger Bands: Price is closely sticking to the lower band (around $102,500), far below the middle band ($106,000–$108,000), confirming a downward channel.
MACD: Death cross green bars accelerating! DIF (-337.61) diving deep, DEA (317.01) moving down simultaneously, green bars (-1309.23) continuously expanding, bearish momentum is off the charts.
Volume Warning: Retail Investor Greed = Stage Top
Before the plunge, the bullish sentiment ratio among retail investors reached 2:1 (the highest since the end of 2024), with a greed index exceeding 60. History shows that such fervor often accompanies short-term tops.
Better to miss than to make a mistake!
Scene strategy key: watch for weak rebounds to reduce positions/open shorts at resistance $106,000–$107,000
Stop loss for long positions below $102,000, follow the trend to short with a target of $100,372. Hold off on bottom-fishing against the trend! Wait for the MACD green bars to shrink and stable signals above the middle track to appear.
