With BTC leading the market to weaken, ETH effectively broke below the key support of 2600, forming a one-sided decline, confirming the strong control of short positions in the short term. The current price has entered a phase of acceleration with no resistance; if the rebound cannot reclaim the 2580-2600 range (previous support turned strong resistance area), it is highly likely to continue the downward trend, with the next target looking towards the psychological level of 2500 and 2450 (weekly support level).

The 4-hour level has continuously shown large bearish candles breaking below 2600, and the MACD displays a second death cross below the zero axis, indicating an increase in bearish momentum. Any rebound in the morning to the 2560-2580 range can be seen as a high short opportunity; aggressive traders may short at the current price (hypothetically around 2540), but should be cautious of the risk of a short-term oversold rebound, while conservative traders should wait for a pressure signal above 2580 before entering.

If there is a quick drop to the 2450-2480 area (a densely traded area within the year), attention should be paid to the possibility of a bullish counterattack. However, to counter the trend with a rebound, the following must be met: ① BTC stops falling and stabilizes ② ETH shows a long lower shadow + volume support. The current main strategy is still to focus on high shorts during rebounds, and all long positions should be regarded as counter-trend short-term actions, with strict stop losses above 2600.

Current price 2570: Lightly test short (30% position), stop loss 2590, target 2480-2450

- Ideal short point: Wait for a rebound to 2580-2600 to add to shorts, stop loss 2605, target to go down synchronously

- Long position forbidden zone: Avoid bottom fishing on the left side until a stop loss signal with volume appears.