The impact of U.S. tariffs (especially against major trading partners like China) on the cryptocurrency market is an indirect, layered economic chain effect.
The following is a summary of the main influencing directions and market reaction logic:
🔍 1. Pressure on risk assets → The cryptocurrency market may decline
Tariff wars will increase uncertainty in global markets, leading to a capital outflow from risk assets (such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies).
Investors may turn to safe-haven assets (USD, gold, short-term bonds), leading to potential sell-offs in cryptocurrencies in the short term.
Example: When Trump imposed tariffs on China in 2018, Bitcoin fell in sync with U.S. stocks.
🔍 2. Rising inflation risk → Interest rate expectations affect Bitcoin
Tariffs will raise import prices, further exacerbating inflationary pressure.
If the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts to control inflation, the cost of capital in the market will rise, which is unfavorable for cryptocurrencies.
However, if the market expects inflation to be only temporary, it could still favor the narrative of Bitcoin as an "anti-inflation asset."
🔍 3. Geopolitics and capital transfer → Long-term positive for cryptocurrency
Tariffs are manifestations of trade friction, reflecting the friction between the dollar system and other economies.
In the long run, companies and individuals seeking more flexible, uncontrolled cross-border asset storage methods will benefit cryptocurrencies.
Example: During the intensification of the U.S.-China tech war in 2020, there were signs of Asian capital flowing into Bitcoin as a hedge.
🔍 4. Responses from China/other countries → Boosting cryptocurrency adoption
If the impact of tariffs on China expands, it could further promote the development of the digital yuan (CBDC) or enhance the technological research and development of crypto assets.
Southeast Asia, Africa, and other regions may also turn to stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) as settlement tools for cross-border trade due to USD pressure.
📊 Market Response Summary (Short-term vs Long-term)
Time dimension Possible influence Impact on cryptocurrencies
Short-term Sell-off of risk assets, strengthening USD, tightening liquidity Negative, downward pressure on prices
Medium-term Heightened inflation, increased policy uncertainty Watch market expectation responses, with a chance of rebound
Long-term Increasing demand for decentralized assets, changes in global trade patterns Positive, driving cryptocurrency adoption and value storage role
If you are a trader, you can observe:
VIX (Volatility Index)
U.S. 10-year bond yield
USD Index DXY
US-China policy and data release timelines
To assist in determining whether the cryptocurrency market is being affected by the sentiment interference of trade wars or tariff policies.
