As Trump seeks to return to the White House, Republicans are quietly laying down a grand tax reform strategy—of which the most striking aspect is not the tax cuts themselves, but the carefully 'timed' tax bomb: in 2028, tens of trillions of tax cuts are set to expire simultaneously, potentially triggering a 'structural fault' in the economy and the markets.


This is not only about the wallets of the working class and the financial expectations of American families but may also profoundly impact the price structure of risk assets, including crypto assets. Amid this complex policy fog, using Mlion.ai's macro policy sentiment analysis and tax reform monitoring tools may become an important weapon for investors to lock in trends in advance.



1. The 'dual-track' design of the tax cut bill: Permanent cuts for the rich, limited-time benefits for workers


The Republican-controlled House of Representatives recently passed a bill aimed at 'reshaping the tax base', targeting the long-term extension of the 2017 TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act). However, unlike previous large-scale tax cuts, this 'Tax Reform 2.0' appears to have a stronger political rhythm:


  • Tax cuts related to corporations and high-net-worth individuals will be permanently extended, including reductions in corporate taxes and extensions of estate tax exemptions;


  • However, the 'tax relief package' specifically designed for ordinary wage earners will collectively expire in 2028, including:


    • Tax exemption on tip income;


    • Full deduction of car loan interest;


    • Tax reductions for the elderly;


    • Expansion of child tax credits, etc.




In other words, if Trump were to return to the White House, his departure year would coincide with the disappearance of these tax 'gift packages', at which point American families will face a 'tax cliff' triggered by policy reversal.



2. Behind the 'cliff-like' maturity lies a high volatility prelude in financial markets


From U.S. stocks to the bond market and then to the crypto market, policy expectations have long been a key logic in asset pricing.


  • Before 2028, short-term tax reforms will stimulate consumption and employment, coupled with a potential interest rate reduction cycle, risk asset prices may remain prosperous;


  • Starting in 2028, if tens of trillions in tax benefits expire simultaneously, it will weaken consumption and savings, potentially impacting the fundamental valuation of assets;


  • More critically, the expansion of fiscal deficits and the bundling of monetary policy will create a 'double pressure', possibly forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary supply, leading to valuation compression of risk assets.


According to Mlion.ai's macro forecasting model, if there is no new delay policy for the 'tax cliff' in 2028, the impact on demand for U.S. Treasuries will push long-term interest rates higher, affecting core crypto assets such as Bitcoin and ETH, which rely on liquidity. Any capital reallocation behavior under tax reform fluctuations may trigger structural changes in the crypto market.



3. Why is this particularly critical for Web3 and crypto investors?


Firstly, many investors in crypto assets overlap significantly with the beneficiaries of this policy:


  • Low- and middle-income American families are highly sensitive to tax relief programs such as tips and car loans;


  • Web3 entrepreneurs, high-frequency traders, and other young groups generally enjoy higher standard deductions and family tax benefits;


  • Mlion.ai's tax simulation feature indicates that if all existing tax relief policies expire in 2028, the effective tax burden for middle-class families with annual incomes of $60,000 to $120,000 will increase by 9-12%, which will directly compress their investable income—financing difficulties for Web3 startups, liquidity for DeFi users, and purchasing power for NFTs and new cryptocurrencies will all be affected.



Secondly, for institutions, policy clarity is one of the valuation anchors. The Republicans' deliberate creation of a 'temporal gap' is both a bargaining chip and a risk. If the market begins to price in the impact of 'tax reversion' early in 2026-2027, it is highly likely to trigger a major reshuffle in the crypto market.



4. From deficits to risk premiums: The market is not unresponsive


According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessment, this bill will increase the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next ten years, and if interest is included, the actual impact may approach $3 trillion. The JCT (Joint Committee on Taxation) even stated that the bill's impact on long-term GDP growth is almost 'negligible'.


This is not a policy driven by economic growth but a typical election-year fiscal arrangement. This also explains why there are divisions of opinion within the Senate:


  • The corporate-friendly faction (like Johnson and Howen) hopes to retain tax cuts for high-income individuals and businesses;


  • The populist right (like Chip Roy) emphasizes that 'without institutional change, problems will only recur';


  • Meanwhile, the Democrats question whether all of this is built on 'fiscal illusion'.



5. What recommendations does Mlion.ai provide?


In the face of structural 'tax cliff' expectations, Mlion.ai advises investors to prepare the following deployments in advance:


  1. Sentiment tracking: Use AI news insights for in-depth analysis to timely capture policy dynamics, congressional statements, and key public opinion nodes affecting the market related to tax reform;


  2. Policy-sensitive target selection: Combine AI research report functions to analyze the crypto sectors most affected by tax cut policies (such as on-chain payments, tokenized finance, cross-border stablecoins);


  3. Medium-term layout planning: Rely on price prediction and macro visualization tools to develop long-short strategies before and after the critical points of tax policy from 2026 to 2028, clarifying buying and exit timing.



In conclusion:


In 2028, the 'tax cliff' will not only be a test for fiscal science but may also trigger a new round of market cycle transitions. Just like the tax cuts in 2017 led to a wave of asset bull markets, the Republicans' 'cliff gamble' may bring new structural opportunities and risks to the crypto world.


Those who can foresee the rhythm in advance can lay out their advantages early.


Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves risks, and caution is required when entering the market.