The increase of $BTC over the past week has nearly halved within 24 hours, and today the market's calls for a significant drop are particularly strong. Although I predicted back on May 1 that we would test again by the end of May or mid-June, it feels a bit hasty to drop like this as it is expected by the market, which does not align with the usual tactics of the main players!

According to coinglass, the funding rates show

$BTC 7-day funding rate 0.1411%, daily average 0.021%, current 0.0067%

$ETH 7-day funding rate 0.21%, daily average 0.3%, current 0.01%

Long-short ratio: btc long: 48.5% short: 51.5%

eth long 48.7% short 51.2%

From these two dimensions, after killing off a wave of long positions during the day, the current continued decline does not align with the interests of the main players!

Looking at the technical side, both the weekly and daily charts are showing divergence close to the zero axis, which is indeed one of the signals for a trend change. However, in terms of volume, aside from a slight increase around the high point of May 22, the high point from the day before yesterday has been decreasing relative to earlier points. My view is that a decrease in volume indicates a pullback, but not necessarily a reversal; an increase in volume at the top is the real signal for a reversal!

Therefore, personally, I feel that this drop is temporarily a technical pullback and does not signify a reversal of the main players unloading!

There will likely be another attempt to challenge the previous high. As for the pullback point, it is likely around 106600—which is also the Fibonacci retracement line at 0.618. The final defensive line for a wave of increase is generally at the 0.5 rule line:

(High - Low)/2 + Low, which is (110530 - 100372)/2 + 100372 = 105446

Of course, if it breaks below 105446, we will have to test the support level of 100,000 again. So the question arises, where are the 0.618 and 0.5 defensive levels for the upward trend that started on April 7?