Many people say that #BTC is about to peak, and it's a double top.

What do you think?

My view is, let's put it this way, if the #dollar collapses, then it's about abandoning currency and preserving assets, which everyone in the crypto space understands. If stablecoins drop, then hard currencies will rise. But the process might be very bumpy. Today, I was chatting with the princess @0xsexybanana, and we talked about how the volatility index VIX has been bought up by institutions, which corresponds to this situation. Whenever there is a major structural adjustment, stocks, bonds, and exchange rates will have many unexpected correlations, and there might even be some secondary disasters. Buckle up and buy some insurance, but I believe that hard assets like BTC will eventually come back.

Because if China doesn't step in to help, this might be the optimal solution, as the assets are preserved. In the short term, it’s just a matter of where the currency depreciates to, and we can still play around later. If the assets collapse, the currency might not hold either, and then what’s the point?

Back to Bitcoin itself, this question becomes whether you think BTC is truly a hard currency. So according to this logic, the current strategy is that if there is a significant drop of several tens of percent, then it would be very appropriate to buy a call option at that time. If we consider the current position, BTC spot can be held, but high-leverage options or contracts for going long or short are not so clear.

Although it is relatively clear that it will rise ultimately, the current issue is mainly that the path is not clear, as the Federal Reserve's operational ideas have not yet solidified. The Federal Reserve is also looking at various situations, especially observing the actual outcomes of negotiations between Trump and China to determine the next operational path.

Speaking of #China-US negotiations, based on the information currently disclosed by the media, the progress seems to be smooth, but the real test lies ahead. We need to see whether China will step in to support, or stand by during the major test of US Treasury bonds in June. I fear that distant water cannot quench a nearby fire, and the possibility of China making a major shift in the short term seems rather small.

If it’s the latter, it indicates that China does not want to let Trump off that easily. They won’t make a scene on the surface, but the underlying logic of de-Americanization hasn’t changed. Chips still need to be produced domestically, and the US is actually the same; after this incident with Chinese rare earths, they will also need to supply their own rare earths in the future. So talk is talk, and conflict is conflict; Liu Bei and Cao Cao are discussing heroes over wine—each with their own ulterior motives.

It’s actually not hard to understand; it’s like a relationship. Once both sides have gone through serious conflicts and even considered divorce, even if neighbors temporarily mediate, trust has been broken, and it becomes very difficult to rely on each other completely on critical issues like finances in the short term.