May data on manufacturing inflation in the U.S. came out positive, giving a local bullish impulse. The BTC rate showed modest growth of 0.43%, and has now absorbed all the growth.
Details on the data:
- Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (y/y): 3.0% with a forecast of 3.1% and a previous figure of 3.2%.
- Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (m/m): 0.1% with a forecast of 0.3% and a previous figure of -0.2%.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) (m/m): 0.1% with a forecast of 0.2% and a previous figure of -0.2%.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) (y/y): 2.6% with a forecast of 2.6% and a previous figure of 2.5%.
This means the data is generally better than forecasts. Three out of four indicators show a decline, while one (core index, year-over-year) shows growth within the forecast.
There are no significant movements in the labor market:
- Total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits: 1.956 million with a forecast of 1.910 million and a previous figure of 1.902 million.
- Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits: 248 thousand with a forecast of 242 thousand and a previous figure of 248 thousand.
Overall, the inflation situation in June looks very good. Clearly better than expected according to the consensus forecast. New reasons for Trump to criticize the 'perpetually late Powell'. What will Powell talk about on June 18 after the Fed's interest rate decision? Perhaps it will be cautiously 'dovish' rhetoric. Especially if by that time new positive details about U.S. trade deals emerge. Regarding China and beyond.