BTC Four-Hour K-Line Analysis
The current BTC four-hour technical perspective presents a game pattern of "oversold recovery and mid-term pressure." From the Bollinger Bands perspective, the price continues to run close to the lower band (106743.5), with the bandwidth narrowing to 2.8%, indicating that short-term volatility has been compressed to an extreme value. Combined with the K-line shape, the double bottom structure formed by the lows on June 7 and 12 builds support near the lower band, suggesting a phase of exhaustion in bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a divergence feature: the 6-period RSI falls to 24.11, entering the oversold zone, while the 12-period and 24-period RSI are at 40.66 and 48.88, respectively, and have not formed a clear bottom divergence, reflecting a contradiction between short-term oversold recovery demand and mid-term weak trend. The MACD indicator shows bearish dominance — the two lines continue to stay below the zero axis, with the DIF and DEA negative opening widening, but the green momentum bars have been continuously shortening. The DIF line has turned upward from a low of -1200, indicating a reduction in short-selling momentum, and the long-short forces are entering a rebalancing phase.
In the short term, the lower Bollinger Band at 106743 and the previous day's low at 106000 form a key support zone. If it stabilizes and stops falling here, one could cautiously speculate on a rebound to the middle band (108764) and the round number of 110000, with a strict stop-loss set below 106000. In the mid-term, it will be necessary to wait for the Bollinger Band to widen or for the 3-period RSI golden cross to confirm a trend reversal. Before that, it is advisable to focus on high short and low long strategies, controlling positions to cope with fluctuations. In terms of risk, one must be wary of sudden impacts on market sentiment from Federal Reserve policies and regulatory dynamics. Currently, BTC's market capitalization proportion has fallen to 52%, reflecting a decrease in risk appetite, and systemic sentiment fluctuations may amplify short-term volatility. Overall, the four-hour level releases signals of oversold recovery, but mid-term bottoming will still take time. Operationally, it is advisable to focus on technical signal speculation, avoiding chasing highs and selling lows.
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