$BTC Before we know it, the day of the CPI announcement has arrived. There is still chaos over in the beautiful country. For those still holding positions, tonight is destined to be another nerve-wracking moment. As the market has progressed to today, I believe most spot traders have become silent. The market's repeated fluctuations can indeed torment a person to the point of wanting to just lie flat.
Give up, but still feel unwilling; hold on, but it seems there's no hope. However, no matter how hard it is, we have persisted until June. If you still have a shred of belief in the four-year cycle, and if you want to face the market and reclaim your capital, then I still suggest that you seize this opportunity in June for a market shift, research your positions well, do not leave the market, and do not lose your spirit.
The tail end of every bull market is very challenging, testing the mindset of players and their skills. The key time point for widening the gap, aside from the bear market phase, is now. The bear market tests whether one dares to buy, while the end of the bull market tests whether one can hold on and whether one dares to sell. Do not blame the current anxiety on external factors; whether in battle or in argument, they are all smokescreens that pervade the market. What is meant to come will come, what is meant to happen will happen. Even if cryptocurrencies are indeed a bubble, it is not yet crazy enough to burst immediately.
Based on the current market pattern and combined with on-chain data, there is not much information indicating that BTC's current round of gains has peaked. Of course, the data indicators this time are quite strange, showing a contrast compared to the previous two rounds. BTC has risen to the range of 110,000, the rainbow chart index is still at a relatively cheap range, and the bubble index remains stable at low values. The only thing that somewhat aligns with psychological expectations is that the top-escaping index is slowly approaching the red indicator line, but upon a closer look, there is still some distance.
Analyzing from the fundamentals, the negative and positive news from the first half of the year has been mostly released. Overall, there is more positive news than negative, so I personally believe that BTC still has the potential to hit a new high of 120,000 in the short term. Considering the distribution of funds shown in the liquidation map and the existence of the 93,000 futures CME gap, the probability of a high followed by a pullback and continued consolidation is still quite high. When you can understand the market trend and adjust your strategies based on your positions, maintaining an appropriate cash position to deal with pullbacks, your overall operations can have a certain degree of certainty, and psychologically, you won't feel too anxious or tense.
Don't forget that there are still favorable news like QE, interest rate cuts, ETH staking ETFs, and altcoin ETFs in the second half of the year. As long as these factors are realized, they will increase market liquidity. Of course, this does not mean that the market will rise immediately upon news release; there will relatively be a certainty in the trend.
A friend joked that back in school, he never paid this much attention to world events and financial news. After a few years in crypto, he hasn't made much money, but he has become quite skilled at talking big at the dinner table. Looking at it from another angle, isn't this a good thing? Most ordinary people are troubled by daily necessities and lost in the pleasure of binge-watching shows and online shopping. You, however, have this opportunity to constantly keep in touch with cutting-edge information from the world. Facing a whole new industry, you must always push yourself to improve your learning ability, which is far better than idly playing mahjong, partying in nightclubs, or boasting while doing nothing.
If you haven't made money in the cryptocurrency market, it's likely just that your methods and strategies are wrong. Times are changing, and so is the crypto market. We can't completely replicate the experiences from the previous two bull markets to face today's market, but what we can control is our own thinking and mindset, which are often the key factors in the difference in account returns.
A friend left a message in the comments, sharing many heartfelt thoughts, feeling that the world is a chaotic place, and that the cryptocurrency market is a place of survival of the fittest. Their team has gone through two cycles without much gain, feeling disheartened, and decided to exit at the beginning of the year. I don’t really know how to comfort him. To put it this way, as someone of my age, whether or not I've enjoyed the benefits of the times, I genuinely feel that no industry is particularly easy, nor is there one that is particularly difficult. The same goes for the real economy and the crypto market. Those who can see through the essence, leverage their strengths to mobilize resources, and continuously learn while having a big heart can generally succeed in any industry. If they are not doing well, most of the issues lie within themselves. As ordinary people, if we want to break the shackles of hierarchy and earn wealth that can change our lives, I personally believe that the crypto market has already provided many opportunities.
Despite experiencing two cycles of bull and bear markets, I have not achieved financial freedom in the crypto market, but I have still earned some money for living well. Time flies; it has been 7 years, and I feel I am still just starting out. If you want to play for the long term, there is still a long road of learning ahead. However, as long as you see through the essence and understand the market, with a certain amount of capital, the returns in the crypto market are still quite appealing.
As I write this, I suddenly remember a primary school math problem from my daughter, designed by some unfortunate ancestor, which tortures children. Out of a class of 60, only 5 got it right. But upon careful thought, it seems to reflect the same principle: the world is not as simple as it appears. Only those who observe and think deeply will possess the final answer.
There are 10 candles on the table. The teacher asked Xiao Ming to light 3 candles, asked Xiao Hong to light 5 candles, and asked Xiao Liang to light 2 candles. Then Xiao Le was asked to blow out 4 candles. How many candles are left on the table?
I hope you can answer correctly ☕
