⸻
🧾 Current status of tariffs
• In May–June 2025, the administration raised tariffs under Article 232 on steel and aluminum (up to 50%), expanding tariffs on cars and vehicle parts (25%) and others  .
• Tariffs ranging from 10% to 30% were imposed on Chinese goods, and up to 54% on some goods closely related to rare metals.
⸻
🎯 Economic impacts in the United States
Inflation and prices
• The annual inflation rose to 2.4% in May (from 2.3% in April), with core inflation at 2.8% .
• Despite the rise, wholesalers and consumers have been moderately affected so far, with the effects of the tariffs delayed due to corporate inventories .
• However, electronics prices – such as phones and computers – are expected to rise according to S&P Global Ratings .
Output and labor market
• Job growth in May was positive (+139 thousand jobs), and inflation is under control at 2.4% .
• Nevertheless, the World Bank has lowered its growth forecast for the U.S. economy to 1.4% in 2025, compared to 2.8% in 2024 .
• According to the Penn Wharton model, Trump's tariffs will reduce GDP by up to about 6% and lower wages by 5% in the long term .
⸻
🌐 Global impacts
• China: Small Chinese importers are facing losses, and about 32% of industrial factories have lost due to high prices .
• Mexico and Canada: Forecasts included recession and risks to oil supplies and agricultural services.
• Global markets: J.P. Morgan estimated a 60% probability of a global recession with rising trade polarization . Forecasts of global losses reaching $1.4 trillion due to the trade war.
⸻
💵 Revenue and budget
• Expectations indicate generating about $2.5–2.8 trillion in revenue over the next decade, used as a cover to offset tax cuts .
• Critics like Senator Cain say this represents a regressive tax that burdens the middle class and the poor.
⸻
⚖️ Legal and political aspects
• Judicially, the court ordered the continuation of tariff enforcement while legitimate disputes regarding Trump's presidential powers are appealed.
• Legal challenges before the International Trade Court (preliminary ruling on May 28, 2025), where it was determined that the WTO's powers were not fully delegated to Trump to impose these tariffs.
📌 Summary
The tariffs have not yet led to a severe economic crisis in the United States, but their effects are gradually being felt through inflation, prices, and supply chains. Globally, there is increasing concern about slowing growth and the potential for recession. Politically, Trump's tariffs are seen as a tool for revenue generation and financing other policies, but they carry deep economic and social repercussions that may emerge in the medium to long term.
⸻
