The US and China have engaged in a life-and-death discussion for 48 hours in London, temporarily pressing the nuclear button on the trade war, but the fuse is still burning. August 10th is the line of life and death!
Temporary pain relief:
The US has loosened its grip on rare earths.
China has also eased restrictions, allowing Shenzhen rare earth companies to resume exports.
The most severe measure is the drastic reduction in tariffs! The punitive tariffs imposed by the US on China have been slashed from 145% to 30%, while China has reduced its tariffs on the US from 125% to 10%. This is definitely a significant concession from both sides!
BUT! A ticking time bomb hangs overhead:
August 10th is the deadline! If no agreement is reached before then, all lowered tariffs will shoot back up with a bang, or even worse! This is not an agreement; it’s merely a delay to an explosion!
Surface ceasefire, covert stabbing:
The US is being sneaky: the ban on chips and aircraft equipment remains unchanged, and they boast about the court supporting their 34% 'standard' tariff. I see this as a delaying tactic, with the big stick ready to strike at any moment!
China is not backing down either: exports to the US plummeted by 34.5% in May, setting a record, and the trade war indeed hurts. But we have the rare earth trump card, forcing the US back to the negotiating table; this hand is strong enough!
Global panic:
The World Bank overnight revised its global growth forecast for next year down to a dismal 2.3%.
ECB President Lagarde urgently shouted: If this continues, the global economy will go straight to ICU!
Countries like the EU, Japan, and Mexico, especially those involved in aircraft manufacturing, are pleading with the US, 'Don’t shoot!' The market is genuinely scared!
Experts' bold statements:
This is a 'Syrian-style ceasefire'—as fragile as a piece of paper! The deep-rooted contradictions are not resolved at all; it all depends on the leaders' moods, and they can turn on each other at any moment. I completely agree; this 'peace' is highly unreliable!
Market hysteria:
Rare earth stocks are soaring, with Shenzhen-related companies operating like money printing machines.
The dollar has mysteriously dropped, exposing the market's underlying anxiety.
American companies are split: one side shouts 'Long live probation,' while the other secretly stockpiles goods in anticipation of an August explosion! This blatantly shows that no one believes this ceasefire can last!
My ultimate judgment:
Trump's tariff cannons are already loaded, just waiting to fire on August 10th!
Beijing holds the rare earth card, and if pushed, will retaliate fiercely.
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